Odds stacked against any newcomers

Over the past 20 years Cork North Central has been one of the constituencies which not only offers a good barometer of the national mood but critically has been one of those constituencies with the potential to contribute to a change of government.

As a five-seater it was always susceptible to swings, with the balance of power often shifting between Fianna Fáil taking three of the five seats - as happened in 1997 and 2002 - and Fine Gael and Labour winning a majority of seats as happened in 1992.

However, the reduction of Cork North Central to four seats for this election limits the possibility of surprise, and the odds are stacked against any newcomer unseating sitting TDs Noel O'Flynn (FF), Billy Kelleher (FF), Bernard Allen (FG) and Kathleen Lynch (Labour).

The constituency spans both city and county with the former comprising mainly working-class areas like Churchfield, Blackpool, Gurranabraher and Farranree, flanked by more middle-class areas such as Shanakiel in the west and Montenotte to the east.

The county part of the constituency, which now accounts for 48 per cent of the 66,296 electorate, takes in satellite villages like Blarney, Glanmire, Tower, Grenagh and Glounthaune as well as burgeoning rural areas like Donoughmore, Whitechurch and Carrignavar. The revision, which resulted in Cork North Central becoming a four-seater, saw the loss to Cork South Central of southside city areas such as Ballinlough, Glasheen, Turner's Cross, Bishopstown and the city centre and the addition of Dripsey and Cloghroe in the county

The decision by veteran Fianna Fáil TD Danny Wallace not to run again has eased matters for party colleagues O'Flynn and Kelleher and it is an indication of Fianna Fáil's realism that the party is simply striving to hold its two seats in the new four-seater.

Allen will be joined on the Fine Gael ticket as he was in 2002 by Cllr Gerry Kelly from Knockraha, near Glanmire, and Labour TD Lynch will be seeking to hold the seat she won back in 2002 having been a casualty in 1997.

The other candidates include Cllr Jonathan O'Brien for Sinn Féin, Cllr Mick Barry of the Socialist Party, Green Party councillor Chris O'Leary, Ted Tynan of the Workers Party and Independents John McCarthy on health issues and Niall Brennan for better fathers' rights.

A recent opinion poll for the Evening Echo which shows Fianna Fáil support down from 41 per cent in 2002 to 31 per cent, had Allen topping the poll at 19 per cent, followed by Lynch and Kelleher on 17 per cent, with O'Flynn on 14 per cent and Kelly and O'Brien both on 9 per cent.

The poll predicts Lynch will take the first seat with transfers from Barry and O'Leary, who are at 6 per cent and 5 per cent, with Allen and Kelleher following her home and O'Flynn taking the final seat from O'Brien without reaching the quota.

Most pundits accept Fianna Fáil's vote will be down on 2002 but believe the poll undervalues O'Flynn, who topped the 2002 poll with 16 per cent, and most agree he's likely to be around the same again with perhaps only a point or two separating himself, Allen, Lynch and Kelleher. This will make it very difficult for either of the likely challengers, O'Brien of Sinn Féin, or Fine Gael's Kelly, to make a breakthrough even though O'Brien, along with fellow city-based anti-establishment candidates Barry and O'Leary, have close to a quota between them.

Most candidates report health as a general issue with particular local concern being expressed over the lack of hospital beds for elderly people and the lack of a casualty department on the city's northside. Many voters are also expressing concerns about anti-social behaviour as well as the lack of social or affordable housing in the city, while the Cork airport debt, the lack of infrastructure such as the Northern Ring Road and general amenities in rural areas are also concerns.

VERDICT - FF - 2 FG - 1 Lab -1

No change