Analysis: ‘Endless Enda’ claim greeted with scepticism

The claim by Government chief whip Paul Kehoe that Enda Kenny would serve out a second full five-year term as Taoiseach if he wins the next election is being taken with a grain of salt by both his colleagues in Fine Gael and TDs in other parties.

“Paul could hardly take it on himself to say that Enda was going to step down in a year or two if wins the next election but nobody in the parliamentary party believes the Taoiseach will do a full second term,” said one of the few Fine Gael TDs not on holidays this week.

In an interview with the Irish Examiner, Kehoe said he expected Kenny to serve “another five years and more” if returned as Taoiseach.

That assertion is being regarded by people across the political spectrum as the standard political response to a hypothetical question.

“We have a general election to fight in the next six months so talking at this stage about Enda leading us into the election after next is simply too far-fetched,” said the Fine Gael TD, adding it was highly unlikely that the next Dáil would last for five years.

He expressed the worry that if taken seriously the claim could erode Kenny’s authority in the same way as Charles Haughey’s jocose remark that some Chinese leaders went on well into their 80s had undermined him in 1991.

More credibility was given to Kehoe’s attempt to debunk the notion that the only possible successors to Kenny were Simon Coveney or Leo Varadkar. There is a growing belief in Fine Gael that the contest will be much more open, depending on circumstances.

Realistic contender

Minister for Justice Frances Fitzgerald is widely regarded as have moved into position as a realistic contender to become the country’s first woman taoiseach. While she is roughly the same age as Mr Kenny, she has not been in politics for nearly as long and has defused a variety of controversies at the Department of Justice since she took over.

At the other end of the age spectrum, Minister of State at the Department of Finance Simon Harris has made a big impact since his promotion from the backbenches and has established himself in a short time as the Government’s most effective spokesman.

At this stage the entire preoccupation of TDs in both Government parties is getting re-elected for another term and not how long either Kenny or Tánaiste Joan Burton will continue to lead after that.

Kehoe also expressed the view that an election pact between the Fine Gael and Labour Party leaders was “absolutely” likely in the forthcoming election.

While leading figures in both parties have ruled out a joint manifesto there is a strong argument for them to fight a tightly co-ordinated campaign with a clear message.