Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin’s number may be up

If the numbers aren’t up for Kenny and Martin, their number may be up, and it doesn’t matter a damn what the numbers are for the votes today on the nomination for Taoiseach. Most of the Independents won’t commit for either of the two big parties (what’s new?!).

The phrase du jour for this is “sitting on their hands”. In reality, sitting on a wider landing zone of their body is more anatomically (and figuratively) correct.

What matters today will happen after the kerfuffle in the chamber has subsided. Late in the afternoon, the leader of Fine Gael and his Fianna Fáil counterpart will meet. Their task is not easy: to come up with some agreement that will allow one (or, less likely, both) rule for a minimum defined period of time. It is our top political story today.

Has Fianna Fáil being softening its stance on a coalition in recent weeks? Is that the inevitable to which it will have to genuflect after everything else has been exhausted?

We have heard a few new phrases this week including “partnership”. Isn’t that a coalition? No. Why not? Because it is a partnership? But what’s the difference?

Well one is a coalition, and the other one is a partnership. Oh, I see. So is it going to be reduced to that, finding a term? The name that dare not declare its love?

There is certainly divergent views within Fianna Fáil, but I suspect it is the last possible option . . . and that would only take place at the far side of another election that produced the same sodden result. For the moment, there are no TDs taking their 2016 posters to their local bring centre.

There are other possibilities. Fine Gael and some in Labour are floating the idea of the smaller party coming back into government. The basis of this would be the opportunity of real power (perhaps two senior ministries) to deliver decisive results in government as opposed to being drowned out by shouty others in opposition. From what I can glean, few in the parliamentary party (and even fewer of the defeated candidates) are buying this.

Could the Greens and Social Democrats be wooed again, especially if Fine Gael were to bow to a far more social democrat agenda? That has been floated as a possibility, but for the moment it remains remote. Here is our reporting on this trope.

The truth is that no combination can be considered outlandish in the strange new world that has been created. It is a bit silly for anyone to claim that the people voted for anything in particular. What it showed is that people wanted change but did not know what change they wanted. Anyone who says people actually went into their polling booths in droves to cast strategic votes on a grand coalition is a village fool.

That may well be the outcome, but few actually specifically voted for it.

Minority reports

Two documents were published yesterday. The first was the Fine Gael document on priorities, which commits it to ambitious targets for 2020 on housing (25,000 new homes each year overseen by a minister of housing) as well as a further 200,000 jobs.

The document commits to appointing a Minister for Housing within 100 days in office.

The document also agrees to a citizen assembly examining the Eighth Amendment to the Constitution (on abortion).

Lots of local services, such as schools, post offices and Garda stations, will be protected. This is a sop to rural Independent TDs. Generally, the document is the party’s manifesto redux, with a few twists here and there.

The second document is the fruit of yesterday’s meeting of the all-party committee on Dáil reform.

The good news for smaller parties is that only five TDs will be needed to form a group for the purposes of speaking rights, and the right to take part in Leaders’ Questions.

That is good news for the Alphabet Alliance and also for the Independent Alliance (although Fianna Fáil is still not thrilled at the prospect of more than one technical group).

Other reforms that feature in this latest document include approval for an “abstain” button that will allow all those TDs who sit on their hands (and there are lots of them) to actually push a button with “abstain” written on it for the electronic vote.

Most of the committee think Friday sittings did not work. They were poorly attended by deputies from outside Dublin. The current proposal is for an extra two hours on Thursday, although the ditching of Friday sittings will not wash well with Joe Public. Here is our report on the committee's deliberations yesterday.