Housing analysis: A genuine attempt to resolve crisis

The Government’s Action Plan for Housing, its key policy platform for solving the housing crisis, was given a broad welcome in Leinster House yesterday bar some quibbling with some of Simon Coveney’s proposals.

Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Labour welcomed some aspects of the plan while criticising others.

However, the overwhelming tone of opinion yesterday was that while it looks good on paper, it will need political will to see it fully implemented.

While Anti-Austerity Alliance–People Before Profit TD Ruth Coppinger awarded Coveney zero out of 10, it is generally accepted that there is a genuine political will to solve the housing crisis.

"If it does everything its says it will do, then we will look back and say it was a good days' work," said Fianna Fáil's John Curran, who chaired the Oireachtas Committee on Housing.

That committee’s report acted as something of a precursor to Coveney’s and allowed for all parties, as well as Independent TDs, to buy into the process.

An example of its influence can be seen in one of the headline initiatives of the Action Plan for Housing. The programme for government, agreed just two months ago, contained a commitment to supply 35,000 social housing units at a cost of €3.8 billion by 2021.

The Oireachtas committee called for 50,000 units over the same period. With that in mind, Coveney upped the Government target to 47,000 units at a cost of €5.3 billion, a significant increased that was welcomed by many politicians.

A fly in the ointment, however, is the outlay for next year. Sinn Féin’s Eoin Ó Broin pointed out that only €150 million would be made available in 2017. He is correct, but it must be noted, that the money supply gathers pace as the plan progresses.

Challenges

The overall level of house building – both public and private – follows a similar path and will rise to just over 25,000 units per year, at least, by 2021.

Coveney does face challenges on other fronts in getting support. Fianna Fáil housing spokesman Barry Cowen, whose party's support is needed to pass an October budget which will contain significant housing measures, pointed to the lack of detail around the rental market and assistance for first-time buyers.

Cowen said his party will need to see more detail before committing its support, and senior Fine Gael figures are aware they must keep Fianna Fáil in mind when finalising such policy measures.

Initiatives

It is understandable, however, for the Government to hold back some initiatives for budget day. Fianna Fáil will naturally try and extract a political win of some sort in this process and there was no point in the Government showing its hand only for Micheál Martin’s party to shoot down what it proposed.

There is also the question of Department of Finance unease about providing assistance for first-time buyers without corresponding measures to boost supply and it is expected that the final Help to Buy scheme to be announced on budget day will do both.

Sources said the mood in Government is not in favour of significant incentives to developers, with the focus instead on removing practical barriers to house building, such as through the planning process. If developers are to be given some sort of carrot, it seems assistance for first-time buyers, by providing affordable homes, will be the price they have to pay.

Yet the implementation of the plan depends very much on Coveney himself. The “action plan” structure lays out strict targets and timeframes.

Coveney will want to deliver, particularly as he simultaneously chases the leadership of his party.