How the Dáil numbers stack up for Enda Kenny

If Independent junior minister John Halligan departs from the Government it would not destroy Enda Kenny's makeshift majority in the Dáil but it would certainly put it on the edge.

Under the terms of the agreement with Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael must be able to command a majority in the Dáil when Fianna Fáil abstains. This requires the votes of 58 TDs. Fine Gael has 50 TDs of its own.

It also has the support of the Independent Alliance TDs – Mr Halligan, Shane Ross, Finian McGrath, Kevin 'Boxer' Moran, Seán Canney – and of unaligned Independents Katherine Zappone and Denis Naughten.

Of these seven TDs, six are Ministers or junior ministers. Mr Kenny also enjoys the habitual support of the Tipperary TD Michael Lowry – who has said he has an “understanding” with the Government but with whom there is no formal agreement for support – and the Clare TD Michael Harty, who has been appointed chair of the Oireachtas health committee.

However, Dr Harty has said he is supporting the Government on a “case-by-case” basis. He voted with the Government on early amendments to the Apple tax motion on Wednesday night, but did not vote with the Government on the final substantive motion.

With the support of all of the above, Mr Kenny has 59 votes in the Dáil – the same number he received when he was elected Taoiseach back in May. If Mr Halligan resigns, that falls to 58 – the bare Dáil majority with a Fianna Fáil abstention. It’s no wonder that both Fine Gael and Independent Ministers are on the lookout for additional support.

And there are certainly several Independent TDs who have often voted with the Government, some of whom – such as Mattie McGrath and Noel Grealish – were involved in lengthy discussions with Fine Gael after the election but did not ultimately join the Government. Others in Fine Gael speculate that newly Independent TD Stephen Donnelly could join the Government.

Any or all of these, however, would surely exact a price for their support. Mr Kenny’s Dáil strength is precarious, to say the least.