‘Irish Times’ poll: Early election unlikely to lead to any big change in Dáil make-up

An early election would not lead to a significant change in the make-up of the Dáil, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll. Fianna Fáil has dropped back significantly since the last poll in July but is still marginally ahead of where it was in the election while Fine Gael has recovered a little since July and is close to where it was in February.

Support for Independents and smaller parties is up since the last poll, indicating that an early election will not lead to any big drop in their numbers in the Dáil. Support for Sinn Féin is also up.

One reason there has been no significant shift since the February election is that a majority of people believe the current minority government arrangement is good for the country, according to the poll.

At 26 per cent, support for Fine Gael is only up marginally on the election but it will be some relief to the party that it has drawn level with Fianna Fáil after falling well behind its rival in the last poll. Fine Gael will also be encouraged by the fact that at 28 per cent it is well ahead of other parties in Dublin with twice the level of support obtained by Fianna Fáil in the capital. It does not fare as well in the rest of Leinster and Munster where it is well behind Fianna Fáil but the two parties are neck and neck in Connacht-Ulster.

Across the age groups Fine Gael does best among the over 65s and worst among the 18-24 age group.

Encouraging

Despite the drop in support since July the poll is still encouraging for Fianna Fáil. The party is ahead of Fine Gael among the over 65s, probably reflecting the party’s emphasis on an increase in the State pension in next week’s budget. It is also well ahead of Fine Gael across much of the country and among farmers where it is now easily the dominant party.

The main reason for the slide in Fianna Fáil’s fortunes in the latest poll is a big drop in support in Dublin where it is back to 14 per cent by contrast with the 24 per cent it obtained in the last poll.

The party’s strongest region is the rest of Leinster where it is on 31 per cent. It is just one point lower in Munster and Connacht-Ulster, indicating a good regional spread outside Dublin.

In class terms, Fianna Fáil is strongest among the least well-off DE category where it is neck and neck with Sinn Féin, while it is weakest among the best-off AB category.

In age terms, Fianna Fáil does best among the over 65s where it is marginally ahead of Fine Gael while it is weakest among younger voters.

Support for Sinn Féin is up again in the poll following the pattern that sees the party rising in polls but dropping back when it comes to elections.

The party’s support is fairly evenly spread across the regions, doing best in the rest of Leinster where it gets 22 per cent and worst in Dublin and Connacht/Ulster where it is on 17 per cent.

Ahead among young

In age terms, the party is well ahead of all others in the 18-24 age cohort where it is on 36 per cent while in class terms it does best in the poorest DE category where it is on 30 per cent.

The weak spot for the party is the over 65s where it attracts the support of just 8 per cent. It is also weaker than average among middle-class voters.

An encouraging sign for the party is that the traditional disparity between support among men and women has evened out.

The Labour Party remains stuck on 5 per cent with the most encouraging finding being that it is on 9 per cent in Dublin. Its support is evenly spread across the age groups.

It faces numerous challengers in Dublin where it trails well behind Sinn Féin and is not that far ahead of the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit and the Green Party, which are on 6 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.

The Social Democrats, who are now on just 2 per cent nationally, do marginally better in Dublin but the party faces a battle to carve out an identity for itself. The Greens do a little better at 3 per cent, but at 5 per cent in Dublin are probably better positioned to make gains in future elections.

Independents of all kinds continue to attract support across the country. They are strongest in Dublin at 18 per cent, compared with 17 per cent in Munster, 12 per cent in the rest of Leinster and 11 per cent in Connacht-Ulster.

When the level of support for Independents is broken down the Independent Alliance led by Shane Ross gets a national rating of 3 per cent. This is up one point on the last poll but curiously the grouping is down in Dublin and up in the rest of the country.