Kenny’s feel-good factor fades as hard Brexit rears its ugly head

Speaking in Brussels after the conclusion of Saturday's European summit, Taoiseach Enda Kenny paid glowing tributes to Irish officials and Ministers whose diplomatic and political work in recent months paved the way for the prioritising of Irish interests in the EU's positions on Brexit.

He returned to the theme in the Dáil yesterday, and while there is no doubt an element of self-praise in all of this, the fact is that the weekend summit confirmed that Ireland has been as successful as it could reasonably have been expected to be at this stage of the Brexit process.

But the other Brexit news of the weekend – which began to emerge on Sunday before being disseminated widely on Monday and Tuesday – was much less encouraging for the Government.

A report in a German newspaper, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, laid bare the real state of relations between the European Commission and the British government in advance of the opening of the negotiations.

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The well-sourced report – leaked, apparently, from the EU side – detailed a dinner in Downing Street last week where the British prime minister, Theresa May, hosted the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker.

Rough play

The fact of the leak indicated a willingness from the commission side to play rough with the British. And the contents of the leak demonstrated that the EU and the British are light years apart in their expectations of the ground rules, conduct and conclusion of the negotiations.

It described how May told Juncker that Britain is not obliged to pay the EU any settlement on leaving, while David Davis – who is responsible for the actual negotiations – chipped in that when Britain leaves the jurisdiction of the European Court, the EU would have no way of forcing Britain to pay anyway. In that case, Juncker replied, there would be no trade deal.

The EU side were reportedly taken aback by the British perception of what would be possible

There were also disagreements about citizens’ rights and on Britain’s future relationship with the single market. The EU side were reportedly taken aback by the British perception of what would be possible. Juncker told May that he left Downing Street 10 times more sceptical than when he arrived.

It wasn’t just an uncomfortable dinner. It was a window on the state of the relations between the two sides that will soon commence negotiations, in a process that both say will need goodwill, understanding and willingness to compromise. And there’s no sign of any of that.

Train crash

There is no conclusion other than a hard Brexit – and perhaps a “train-crash” Brexit in which the two sides fail to agree a deal and the UK simply leaves the EU without an agreement as to how their future relations are conducted – is now a growing possibility.

The optimistic reading of this in the Irish Government is that the two sides are throwing shapes

According to commission officials cited in the report – generally believed to be doing so with the express permission of Juncker – the chances of a successful conclusion to the EU-UK talks is less than 50-50.

The optimistic reading of this in the Irish Government is that the two sides are throwing shapes before a difficult negotiation, stating extreme positions to seek advantage in the early stages. That is possible, but it seems to be based on wishful thinking at least as much as analysis.

Yesterday, the Government published a document on Brexit that is partly a statement of strategy for the negotiations, partly a survey of work to date and also a signal that the focus of the Irish efforts is moving to deal with the economic threats.

While maintaining an upbeat tone, it makes no bones about the fact that these threats are significant and are most severe in sectors and areas that are least able to bear them: “indigenous enterprises that are small in scale, are significantly dependent on the UK as an export market, have deep links with the rest of the economy, have high levels of regional and rural employment (including around the Border), and have relatively low profitability.”

That is a recipe for significant damage to communities and businesses exposed to Brexit, and perhaps in exactly those places least able to bear it.

Reports of the worst dinner party ever suggest that threat is greater than previously appreciated.