Low turnout expected in Dáil byelections

Campaigners in both Dáil byelections being held today are anticipating a low turnout, with Fianna Fáil favourite to take one of the vacant seats and Sinn Féin the other.

Polling stations in Roscommon-South Leitrim and Dublin South West are open from 7am to 10pm. Photographic identification will be required at polling stations.

Roscommon-South Leitrim has taken on an added importance for Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin following the party's poor showing in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll.

Fianna Fáil campaigners in the constituency, such as Senator Terry Leyden, criticised the publication of the poll close to election day – it put the party down five points to 20 per cent and has Mr Martin’s personal rating also falling.

Favourites

While Sinn Féin remains favourite to take the seat in Dublin South West vacated by the election of Fine Gael’s Brian Hayes to the

European Parliament

, Fianna Fáil’s Ivan Connaughton will be fighting with Independent Michael Fitzmaurice for the Roscommon-South Leitrim berth previously held by Luke Ming Flanagan, who was also elected to the European Parliament this year.

Mr Fitzmaurice has the backing of Mr Flanagan, and local sources say that while Mr Connaughton should perform better on first preference votes, Mr Fitzmaurice could pick up enough transfers to push him into contention. However, bookmakers last night cut the odds on Mr Connaughton, and some campaigners were feeling quietly confident.

Mr Martin has made a huge personal effort in Roscommon–South Leitrim and has visited the constituency on numerous occasions before and during the campaign.

Two-horse race.

Dara Calleary, a

Mayo

TD acting as Mr Connaughton’s director of elections, said it would be close, while Mr Fitzmaurice acknowledged it was now effectively a two-horse race.

However, while Fine Gael’s Maura Hopkins is not predicted to win, her transfers are expected to be hugely influential.

"Would Fine Gael people transfer to Ivan Connaughton?" asked one local source. "I don't think so; they might transfer to Fitzmaurice to keep Fianna Fáil out."

Complication

A further complication is that activists in both constituencies say turnout will be very low, with one figure suggesting a possible figure of 30 per cent in Dublin South West.

The low level of interest is attributed to lacklustre campaigns and debates, as well as the byelections coming soon after the local and European elections last May.

While Cathal King is the favourite in Dublin South West, Paul Murphy of the Anti-Austerity Alliance , a former MEP who lost his seat in May’s election, has campaigned hard on the issue of water charges.

Mr Murphy has spread the message in the working-class areas of Tallaght that Sinn Féin could not be trusted on water charge. Sinn Féin denies this.