Michael D Higgins 54 points ahead in position that looks unassailable

Michael D Higgins is streets ahead of all other candidates in the race to become the next President of Ireland. Today’s poll registers first preference voting intention for the incumbent at 66 per cent when undecided voters are excluded.

The latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll gives Higgins an impressive 54-point lead with less than two weeks of the campaign to run. With five other candidates on the ballot the remainder of votes is highly fragmented, which is to the incumbent’s advantage.

Higgins's nearest rival, Seán Gallagher (Independent), registers just 12 per cent support, followed closely by Liadh Ní Riada (Sinn Féin) on 11 per cent. Next is Joan Freeman (Independent) on 5 per cent, then Gavin Duffy (Independent) on 4 per cent, with Peter Casey (Independent) on 2 per cent.

Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll was conducted between Wednesday and Friday of last week among a nationally representative sample of 1,200 eligible voters. Each voter was shown a ballot paper and asked to choose their first and second preference voting intention.

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This latest poll confirms strong support for Higgins across all age groups, ranging from 62 per cent among the youngest voter cohort (18-24 years) to 64 per cent among those aged over 50 years. Higgins is popular with both male voters (on 67 per cent) and female voters (on 65 per cent). Voters from the professional classes (ABs) are especially supportive (on 74 per cent), as too are those from farming backgrounds (on 71 per cent).

Support for Higgins only dips below 60 per cent among working class (DE) voters, where he registers 57 per cent support.

Party banner

Ní Riada is the only candidate running under a party banner. While she is supported by 36 per cent of Sinn Féin voters, Higgins is even more popular (on 42 per cent) among this group.

The current President is running as an Independent and this is reflected in the high level of support (above 70 per cent) he receives from supporters of all parties, bar Sinn Féin.

Four counts were required to determine the final outcome of the 2011 presidential election. Should more than one count be required this time around, transfers will come into play.

If Higgins is not elected on the first count, the likelihood is that he will be elected on transfers. The incumbent receives the highest level of second preferences from all candidates except for Peter Casey.

Personality

Presidential elections have changed in recent times, becoming more about personality and less about party politics. The first political poll conducted by Ipsos MRBI was commissioned by Fine Gael to measure support for the candidates in the 1973 presidential election. At that time there were only two candidates running, Fianna Fáil's Erskine Childers and Fine Gael's Tom O'Higgins.

Back then voters aligned themselves with the party nominee, our poll shows 96 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters supporting Childers and 81 per cent of Fine Gael voters supporting O'Higgins.

Presidential elections nowadays are less predictable because the anchor of party allegiance has been largely removed. Consequently, we have come to expect a degree of volatility in presidential election polling. That said, Higgins’s lead is of such magnitude that an eruption of volcanic proportions is needed to prevent a second term.