New Dáil term, new government deal?

Good morning, and welcome back.

No doubt, through our seemingly endless summer, you pined for this day as we have and will now revel in the joys of the quality early morning political analysis that only our digest delivers.

Yes, the Dáil is back from its summer holidays today and, along with it, Inside Politics. But TDs are only warming themselves up this week by decamping to Screggan in Offaly for the National Ploughing Championships. The House will not be at full throttle until next week, but there is still plenty of political activity between Leinster House and the ploughing.

Michael D Higgins will open the ploughing championships today as he continues his fine efforts to make it look like he and his pet dogs are not actively canvassing for re-election just yet. Other presidential candidates will be down at the ploughing all week, as will other senior politicians. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is due to visit tomorrow morning before travelling to Salzburg for a special meeting of the European Council.

Dragons’ Den panellist Peter Casey likely to secure presidential nod

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FF Irish amendment could delay public health legislation on alcohol

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Britain will not accept Brexit deal with Irish Sea border, Raab says

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Brexit: Tech not on agenda to resolve Border impasse, says Coveney

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The October 9th budget is just weeks away and will be followed by the review of the confidence-and-supply deal. The prospect of a renewal of the deal, and the attendant threat of a general election if there is not, will dominate conversation around Leinster House from this week on.

Micheál Martin has rejected Varadkar's request to begin confidence-and-supply negotiations before the budget, but Varadkar's request to hold the election in the summer of 2020 still stands. Fine Gael, ahead of Fianna Fáil by 11 points in a Red C poll in the Sunday Business Post at the weekend, does not fear an election, even as its senior figures say they do not want one.

The mood music from the top of Fianna Fáil in recent months has been that Martin would extend, mostly because of the importance of the Brexit negotiations, which are expected to reach their conclusion by November.

We report today that a group of senior Fianna Fáil TDs - Timmy Dooley, Jim O'Callaghan, Billy Kelleher and Niall Collins - has expressed serious concern to their party colleagues about such a prospect. They fear an extension could amount to an endorsement of Government policy and bind Fianna Fáil closer to Fine Gael's housing and health policies.

However, the call will be Martin's alone, even if he will be expected to consult with his TDs more than he usually does, given the importance of the issue. Yours truly has analysis and soundings from the front bench and parliamentary party here.

Harry McGee also sets the wider scene for the coming Dáil term here.

The high-stakes gamesmanship between Martin and Varadkar is only starting, and will be a major theme of the term ahead.

EU and UK eyeball each other over Irish Border

Our editorial this morning also sketches out the challenges for the term ahead, and describes the conclusion of the Brexit negotiations as "a momentous event which will have an impact on the State for generations to come".

We lead today on Brexit, and an exclusive interview our London Editor, Denis Staunton, has with UK Brexit secretary Dominic Raab. Against the backdrop of intensifying negotiations - with no compromise yet forthcoming from either side on the issue of the backstop - Raab insists the British parliament, and not just its government, will not accept a border in the Irish Sea.

Raab is responding to proposals from Michel Barnier to "de-dramatise" the backstop, including a suggestion that checks on goods travelling from the UK to Northern Ireland could be done at British ports.

EU leaders will gather for an informal EU summit in Salzburg later this week, at which Irish officials expect our Government to be further supported in its position on the backstop.

Manfred Weber - the leader of the European People's Party, the European Parliament grouping to which Fine Gael belongs - tells Pat Leahy that any post-Brexit checks must not be at the Irish Border. In an analysis piece, Pat says neither side is blinking in this game of chicken.

From Brussels, our Europe Editor Paddy Smyth says the firmly maintained EU position is that "Northern Ireland will have to be treated separately from the rest of the UK".

Best Reads

Fintan O'Toole says the Land Development Agency, announced by the Government last week, repeats the failure of asking developers to solve the housing crisis.

On the ongoing controversy over the Take Back the City protests, Alyson Kilpatrick says police work must be open to public scrutiny.

Harry McGee has the latest rundown on the presidential election and says businessman Peter Casey, who was nominated by two councils yesterday, is likely to get on the ballot paper proper.

Playbook

The National Ploughing Championships, held in Screggan, Tullamore, Co Offaly, is opened by President Michael D Higgins at noon.

The Cabinet meets today, and the report of the Commission on the Future of Policing is expected to be published afterwards.

Dáil

Leaders’ Questions kicks off the new Dáil term at 2pm, followed by the Order of Business.

A financial resolution on the Home Building Finance Ireland Bill precedes Taoiseach’s Questions.

Minister for Communications Denis Naughten is on oral questions.

The Thirty-seventh Amendment of the Constitution (Repeal of offence of publication or utterance of blasphemous matter) Bill 2018 is due to go through all stages.

The Coroner’s Amendment Bill is at second stage.

A Sinn Féin PMB on the future of the post office network is the final business of the day.

Seanad

Our dear friends in the Upper House are not back from their holidays until tomorrow.

Committees

The Construction Industry Federation and Chambers Ireland will discuss their priorities for the upcoming budget at the budgetary oversight committee.

The Business, Enterprise and Innovation committee holds a private hearing.

Communications, Climate Action and the Environment resumes scrutiny on the reduction of certain plastic products and broadband, as well as resuming discussions on broadband installation.