Seasoned observers less swayed by victory flares from rebel camp

DÁIL SKETCH:WILL AMBITIOUS inexperience triumph today? Or will the old dog for the hard road come out ahead? Nobody knows, because you couldn't believe a word out of anyone's mouth yesterday.

Enda Kenny’s people said they had the leadership contest in the bag. Richard Bruton’s people said the same. Who to believe? None of them. If heat and noise is an indication of success, Baby Bruton will win by a mile.

By contrast, IndaKinny, with most of his front bench having deserted him, had to be a beaten docket. Didn’t he? Away from the lobbying – and in the case of Richard Bruton’s team, it seemed to be concentrated rather too heavily on the media – seasoned political animals from the other parties watched the unfolding hysteria with interest.

They were less inclined to be swayed by the victory flares going up from the rebel camp.

The Bruton faction was signalling victory from early in the day. Two more significant frontbench scalps sealed it for them. Or so they said. And in the absence of evidence to the contrary from the Kennyites, assumptions had to be drawn.

All day, as the sun beat down on the plinth, soundings were taken and numbers crunched. The momentum was with Richard, it was decided. His people were categorically stating that they had the required majority. Done and dusted. Compiled the list. Had the figures. By mid afternoon, representatives of the rebels were confirming it was all over for Enda Kenny when another frontbench scalp fell to them – this time it was justice spokesman Charlie Flanagan.

It was game over for the Enda crew. But was it? It was certainly looking good for Richard Bruton. Enda Kenny appeared to have gone to ground, while Baby B was putting himself about Leinster House with a big smile on his face.

The younger members of his support team were cock-a-hoop, out around the plinth, busily entertaining journalists with their happy news.

Still, little sign of Enda’s people.

At teatime, Richard Bruton held a short press conference. “I believe the momentum is behind us at this stage,” he said, refusing to be drawn on the actual numbers. “I am fully confident.” He spoke with passion, but he wasn’t addressing the voters he hopes he will be wooing as Fine Gael leader come the next election. No, Baby Bruton was clearly still making a pitch to the waverers in the party.

For it soon emerged that, in spite of all the spinning and shape throwing, he hadn’t the numbers.

On the Six O'clock News, Fergus O'Dowd let the cat out of the bag. He was asked if the rebels believe they have the numbers to oust Inda from the top job: "Well, I believe we're getting there."

In the meantime, Big Phil Hogan, Inda’s chief lieutenant, led a team of 22 Kenny supporters out before the cameras: “Numbers don’t lie, and we have the numbers.” All day yesterday, the Kenny representatives never once departed from their simple message: “We have the numbers.”

During those two teatime press conferences, Big Phil and Senator Paddy Burke – Enda’s sidekick – looked very laid back and relaxed. In contrast, it was the likes of Brian Hayes and Denis Naughten who looked stressed.

Here’s how one veteran of a number of Fianna Fáil heaves saw it: “People are looking out for themselves. It looks like Richard Bruton has already picked his front bench. He’ll have to reward the people who jumped from Enda’s team. So what’s in it for the rest of the party? The backbenchers see these young bucks describing themselves as ‘the brightest and the best’ and putting themselves ahead of everyone else. If Fine Gael are going to be in power after the next election, maybe Enda Kenny offers the best bet for promotion. If he wins, most the current front bench will get the boot.”

The bemused onlookers point to the most significant aspect of this fiasco for Fine Gael – it’s a secret ballot.

“Sure God knows what they’re saying to these new boys. Promising them a vote and then doing the opposite when they get the chance. The Kenny crowd have been around the block over the last 25 years.”

Michael Noonan offered some refreshing candour: “I know how I’m voting. I’m just not telling anyone.”

And then there’s one of the big names trotted out by the Bruton side yesterday. He got involved in a bit of banter in the restaurant.

“Ah well, at least you declared yourself.”

“Yeah, I did. To the media.”

“Jaysus, anyone would think it was a secret ballot. Ooops! It is!” And everyone cracked up.

“The thing is, whoever wins will start out as leader with about seven knives in his back,” said a grizzled Fianna Fáiler.

The party is taking a certain amount of pleasure in Fine Gael’s discomfort, but they know the joy is but fleeting. They know it’s just a brief respite for them. Still, at least it’s good to know that whatever happens tomorrow, everyone in the Fine Gael parliamentary party will remain the best of friends.

More lies. Two days ago, there was an agreement that representatives from both sides would not appear together on the same programmes so as not to give an impression of a party tearing itself to bits.

That pretence went out the window last evening when Fergus O’Dowd and James Reilly went toe to toe on the evening news.

The phones were hopping all night in FG land. It’s too close to call, said everyone. The smart money says Richard will have to win – it’s the logical thing, given that the parliamentary party is gone from Enda. But what has ever been logical about this shambles of a leadership contest? They’re absolutely agog with it all in the other parties, gobsmacked by the poor judgment of the well-meaning challengers and the ferocious fightback by Inda.

And now they’re saying that if Richard wins, challengers for the title will emerge. Which means weeks without any leader.

What a mess. What a total and utter mess. You’d be afraid to let them run a sweet shop.

The bookies, by the way, are backing Richard.

Word from the Dáil bar is going with Enda.

And then they’ll all live happily ever . . .