What is tomorrow’s summit about?
European leaders, including Enda Kenny, will gather in Brussels to agree the negotiating mandate for the European Commission team that will shortly begin discussions with the British government representatives to agree the terms of the UK's exit from the European Union.
Will the British be there?
You must be joking. It's a meeting of the EU27 - that's the EU members, excluding the UK. The negotiations will be between the EU27 - represented by the Commission, the EU's civil service, and led by Michel Barnier - and the UK. Britain's remains a member of the EU for another two years, but the triggering of Article 50 puts them outside the tent. Ireland will be part of the 27, negotiating with the British.
What is likely to be agreed?
Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council (that's the group of heads of government), published a draft document last month that laid out the negotiating principles to be followed by the EU side during the talks process. From Ireland's point of view, the document was highly positive as it specified the importance of preserving the peace settlement, the Belfast Agreement and the Common Travel Area that exists between Ireland and the UK - which predates our EU membership. It also referenced the need to avoid a hard Border on the island.
Meeting of officials in recent weeks have suggested that there will be no significant changes to the draft document in the position that the leaders are likely to agree tomorrow. This is how EU summits usually work - the conclusions are largely agreed by officials in advance.
What happens then?
Over the coming weeks, Commission officials will produce a series of more detailed documents, which will set out the approach that the EU side will take on a number of specific areas. They will be approved by EU foreign ministers on May 22nd. The British are also making their preparations, though the general election in the UK in early means that Downing Street’s attentions are elsewhere.
Nonetheless, if as expected Mrs May wins the election - probably with a much larger majority - the talks proper will begin in June.
What’s the first item on the agenda?
The talks will be about the arrangements for leaving, not the future relationship between the EU and the UK. But if the two sides can make early progress on important issues - the size of the British exit bill, the status of EU citizens living in the UK, and UK citizens living in EU countries - then they may begin to consider the future relationship. That is of the utmost importance to Ireland, because it will include issues like the trade relationship and the Border.
Anything to watch out for?
Can the two sides agree early in the negotiations to a process for determining the size and the timing of Britain’s exit bill? It’s an issue that has the potential to poison the atmosphere early on. If the parties can agree to work on and around the issue, it’s a sign the talks might go well. If not, we could be in for two years of trench warfare - and potentially no deal preceding the UK exit.
