There is little doubt that the Cabinet will today accept the recommendation of the constitutional convention for a referendum on the provision of same-sex marriage.

The question though is when that referendum is likely to take place. It seems unlikely to happen before 2015 and there is no guarantee that it will happen at all before the next election.

Early in the life of the Coalition Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore described the provision of same-sex marriage as the biggest civil rights issue of the age. So he and the other Labour Ministers can be expected to back the proposal for a referendum.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny has taken a different approach. He avoided giving a commitment on same-sex marriage during the last general election campaign.

However, given that the convention was agreed by both parties in the programme for government, the Cabinet has little option but to accept its recommendation, whatever reservations the Taoiseach or some of his Ministers might have.

Within the Fine Gael parliamentary party there is a lack of enthusiasm for a referendum on this. Some of the party’s TDs and Senators have reservations about the proposed change in the Constitution, while others argue on pragmatic grounds that another potentially divisive campaign is the last thing they need after the Seanad defeat.

Risky strategy
"We annoyed some of our conservative supporters by the ruthless way the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill was forced through. Going back with a referendum on same-sex marriage could push them out of the party altogether," said one parliamentary party member.

He added, though, that many members of the parliamentary party would be reluctant to speak against the proposal not simply for reasons of political expediency, but because Jerry Buttimer, one of the most popular members of the party in Leinster House, is gay.

Nonetheless, there is considerable unease in Fine Gael about supporting the proposed change. One fear is that there could be a repeat of the divisions that appeared in the party on the abortion legislation with the loss of more TDs and Senators.

Even TDs with liberal views on the issue believe it would be politically unwise to risk alienating their more conservative colleagues. There is broad relief within the party about the public reaction to the budget and a determination to stick to the Government’s economic agenda, which TDs believe is beginning to bear fruit.

There is also a fear that a debate about same-sex marriage might quickly be transformed into a debate about same-sex adoption and that Ireland could become the battleground in an international struggle.

In past referendums significant funding from outside the State has been channelled to conservative groups campaigning on issues like divorce and abortion. The debate on same-sex marriage has the capacity to attract outside support and funding for both sides of the argument.

There is an acknowledgment in Fine Gael that the Taoiseach got his way about holding a referendum on the Seanad so the Tánaiste might feel entitled to have same-sex marriage put to the people.

“Mind you many Labour TDs didn’t bother to campaign for the abolition of the Seanad and some even spoke against it so don’t be surprised if many Fine Gael TDs and Senators don’t feel obliged to campaign for a Yes vote to same-sex marriage, or even campaign against it,” said a TD.

On the Labour side, while Gilmore has said he wants the referendum to take place before 2015, his ministerial colleagues are not really expecting it any time soon. While they want to see it happening, probably in conjunction with a range of other proposals from the constitutional convention, some time in 2015 would probably be acceptable.

Labour TDs are happy that there is strong public support for same-sex marriage and they point to the opinion polls. An Ipsos MRBI poll for The Irish Times last June found that 69 per cent favoured the proposal with just 25 per cent against.

The problem is that polls on referendum issues, particularly those taken well in advance of a campaign, can provide a misleading guide to the likely outcome. TDs are aware that right up to the last week of the Seanad referendum campaign the polls showed strong support for abolition. Most of them are wary about repeating that experience too soon.