FIANNA FÁIL: There are signs of an incipient Micheál Martin bounce but the outlook for Fianna Fáil is bleak, writes DEAGLÁN DE BRÉADÚN, Political Correspondent
AS FIANNA Fáil faces into what promises to be the worst general election in the party’s history, the question in the minds of many of its adherents must be: where did it all go wrong?
The party reaches its 85th birthday this year, having been founded by Éamon de Valera and his colleagues in 1926. The handing over of sovereignty in the European Union–International Monetary Fund bailout marked a watershed in the party’s history: the concept of Irish people running their own affairs, a core value of Fianna Fáil, suffered a major setback.
It is this feeling among the general public that the party failed to run the business of the nation properly which is causing it the greatest damage but the economic crisis is not the only reason for the party’s decline.
Fianna Fáil has been in a bad way for some time. The revelations about Charles Haughey’s finances, for example, were not likely to attract idealistic young recruits to an organisation whose philosophy seemed to have been reduced to the getting and wielding of power for its own sake. Bertie Ahern’s major achievement in the Northern Ireland peace process has been overshadowed by his other political failings and misfortunes.
While there is widespread regard and respect for Brian Cowen as a man of integrity and there were high expectations when he came to the office of taoiseach, he turned out to be the unluckiest leader in the party’s history, with his ill fortune aggravated by an inability or unwillingness to communicate effectively with the public on an ongoing basis.
Now a new leader has come in and a new narrative must be established. To call it a major challenge is a huge understatement.
There are reports of doors being slammed in the faces of party canvassers. In almost any vox pop that goes out on the airwaves you will hear members of the public swearing to exact vengeance on Fianna Fáil when they go to the ballot box.
And yet, and yet. Old habits do not disappear overnight. In the privacy of the polling booth some voters may still stay their hands.
There has been an undignified mass exodus from the parliamentary party. Some of those who remain are disillusioned with their erstwhile colleagues, observing that they “turned out to be real careerists in the end”. The party’s forces are seriously depleted and a lot of big names have disappeared from the hustings, reinforcing the negative message to the electorate.
There is little doubt the party will lose seats in significant numbers. Opinion polls have been nothing short of disastrous, although there are signs of an incipient “Micheál Martin bounce”.
Election campaigns matter and perhaps the most outstanding example of this was John Major’s achievement in turning things around for the Tories in 1992, when he toured Britain with his soapbox. A similar challenge confronts the new Fianna Fáil leader.
There is only the briefest of intervals in which to devise and present the message, which will have to be that the party saw Ireland through difficult times in the past, that it has taken harsh but necessary decisions in the current crisis and that, although mistakes have been made, these should not incur the sentence of capital punishment.
The issue of the bank guarantee continues to haunt Fianna Fáil, with allegations of cronyism getting new life from the revelations about social contacts between Cowen and the executives of Anglo Irish Bank.
In that context, the television debates between party leaders assume even greater importance than usual. On this occasion, the usual niggling and nit-picking will not suffice: only a barnstorming performance will sway the public.
Meanwhile, Fine Gael is pledging competence and new faces; Labour is reminding all and sundry that it stood alone against the bank guarantee; and Sinn Féin and others on the left are offering drastic solutions to a drastic problem.
Fianna Fáil can put counter arguments highlighting its experience in office and its refusal to make populist moves on the banks that were not in the national interest. The party can also try to pick holes in Sinn Féin’s economic policies, which party leader Gerry Adams has been endeavouring to explain.
Can the party avert complete disaster? Probably, but it will take a lot of hits.
An energetic campaign by Martin and his new front bench could turn things around somewhat. There is a sense in which the real discussion on the economy has never taken place and Opposition critics have been given a free ride. In a reversal of the normal state of affairs, it is the outgoing Government that must undermine the Opposition’s credibility this time.
At the time Fianna Fáil was founded all those years ago, this newspaper reported de Valera as saying that as long as there were people in the country denied the opportunity of getting a decent living the country was not really free.
In those days, Fianna Fáil was a people’s party with few friends who could be described as speculators and crony capitalists.
A return to those radical roots may now be the only way to save its soul.
HOW THEY FARED IN 2007
VOTE PERCENTAGE:41.6%
SEATS:78