WHAT scientific/ technological developments await us over the coming decades? Several experts speculate in the September 2010 edition of Scientific Americanand today I describe the five most interesting predictions, in my opinion, writes WILLIAM REVILLE.
1. Digital Entanglement
Danny Hillis of the Long Now Foundation reckons that our technology has become so complex that “we no longer fully understand it or fully control it”, and “we have entered the age of entanglement”. For example, on November 19th, 2009, a single circuit board in a Salt Lake City computer failed. This initiated a cascade of events, culminating in a nationwide failure of air-traffic control computers to communicate. Hundreds of flights were cancelled.
Programmers today link many modules developed by other programmers and do not fully know how the individual pieces work, unlike past programmers who completely controlled their computers. Today, “no single person understands the whole picture”. Hillis gives the example of a programme that directs trucks to re-stock stores. This programme must locate the trucks, find street maps and store inventories, and it must track packages and truck maintenance. The programme gets all this information by accessing other programmes via the internet. It is easy to see how such systems can collapse when a single component goes awry.
Hillis explains that such systems were not designed, they evolved. He proposes building a safety net of simple back-up systems that one person can fully understand, to protect ourselves when critical systems fail. For example, in decades past, ham radio operators could keep basic communications going if complex commercial communications failed.
2. Infinite Information Storage
Edward Felten, Princeton University, predicts that by the end of this decade it will be possible to carry a device in your pocket on which all the music ever recorded is stored. And, a few more years after that, you will carry a device in your other pocket on which all the films and TV programmes ever made are recorded.
In the future you won’t have to decide what information to store and what to discard – you can record everything and smart data analysis tools will allow you to retrieve anything you like. Obviously new rules will be needed to regulate storage and use of information in this new era of “infinite information storage”.
3. The Riddle of Consciousness
How consciousness is produced by the brain is the biggest riddle in biology. Consciousness obviously depends on the brain. When the brain dies, consciousness disappears. Interfere with different parts of the living brain and consciousness changes in predictable ways. Christof Koch, California Institute of Technology, explains how science is making rapid strides in revealing the material basis of the conscious mind.
Brain imaging techniques and electroencephalogram tests (EEGs) are revealing the mental life of brain-injured patients who are otherwise unresponsive to the outer world. Scientists are also isolating and mapping specific firing patterns of brain nerves that underpin conscious recognition of stimuli, eg recognition of a particular colour.
Koch speculates that such research will eventually answer questions that have long puzzled us, like – When does a newborn baby become conscious? Is a foetus ever conscious? Does a dog know that it thinks?
4. Farming Revolution
The world human population will reach nine billion by 2050. Many people believe that only conventional farming can feed so many people. But conventional farming – dependent as it is on artificial fertilisers and pesticides – is expensive and damages the environment. John Reganold, Washington State University, proposes that we can adapt organic farming to feed nine billion people, while maintaining a healthy environment. The need for artificial fertilisers can be greatly reduced by alternating grains with legumes and introducing a third or fourth crop into the rotation. This restores nitrogen in the soil, while adopting no-till agriculture minimises soil erosion. And we can minimise waste – 30-40 per cent of all food is currently wasted both in developed and developing countries (spoilage due to delays on poor roads and poor storage facilities, and discarding food that is past “use by” date, even though it is perfectly good).
5. Personal Medicine
The Human Genome Project cost $3 billion (€2.24bn) to complete in 2003. The cost of human genome sequencing has now plummeted by a million fold, and, by 2015, having your genome sequenced will cost less than your summer holiday.
George Church, Harvard Medical School, explains that the traditional one-size-fits-all medicine will soon be replaced by medicine tailored to each individual. Your genome contains key information about your future health and other traits. In the near future people will visit their doctor with their genome information stored on their mobile phones, and receive medical advice tailored to their individual genetic make-up. Incidentally, a very instructive free public lecture dealing with this general area, My DNA, My Genome, My Life, will be given by Prof Tommie McCarthy, Biochemistry Department, UCC, on March 2nd, in Boole 2 lecture theatre, UCC at 8pm.
William Reville is UCC’s associate professor of biochemistry and public awareness of science officer – understandingscience.ucc.ie