The dangers posed by climate change are outlined by an expert at the RDS/ Irish Timeslecture, writes Dick Ahlstrom
Ireland should be particularly interested in the climate change issue. No part of the island is much more than 100km from the sea and rising sea levels will be a consequence of global warming.
So suggests scientist and climate expert Prof Richard Somerville who last night delivered a compelling lecture on the latest findings on climate as contained in the scientific report published last February by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Somerville speaks with some authority on the issue given he is the co-ordinating lead author for the IPCC's fourth assessment report on climate change. He is also a world-renown climatologist and a distinguished professor emeritus at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California.
Last night's lecture was the first in a series planned by the Royal Dublin Society and The Irish Times on the theme, Ireland in 2030. The series of free lectures will look at the serious long-term challenges that face the State in the coming quarter century.
Somerville told his audience about the latest IPCC assessment report that collated a huge body of research carried out by thousands of scientists around the globe.
"It has two main conclusions. First, the warming of the climate system is unequivocal," he states. Average air and ocean temperatures are rising and will continue to rise for some decades to come no matter what is done to reduce the release of climate-warming gases.
"The other main conclusion is the headline statement that most of the increase in global temperatures is 'very likely' due to the release of greenhouse gases through human activity. It has a 90 per cent probability," says Somerville.
THIS PRONOUNCEMENT WAS a huge advance for the IPCC, even though sectoral industrial interests argued it was an overstatement while environmentalists criticised the panel for being too timid on the issue.
The science is based on much more than just measurements of temperature, he points out. While these were assessed so too were the wider "earth systems" behind changes to the oceans, storm patterns and precipitation.
"There is very clear evidence that the carbon dioxide levels are going up, that the ice is melting and that ocean levels are rising," he adds. It is happening all around the world and it can be measured and quantified.
Some attempt to dismiss the data, suggesting that changes in solar output are responsible rather than carbon dioxide levels associated with human activity.
"Doesn't the sun vary? Yes the sun can vary and we know how much. But that isn't enough to achieve the changes we are seeing," states Somerville.
He commented on the recent research findings describing how Ireland's climate will change. "Ireland is warming and is warming more rapidly than elsewhere," he states. The studies suggest that average temperatures here will rise by 1.25 to 1.5 degrees by 2040 and rainfall could increase by 15 per cent.
"No place in Ireland is more than 100km from the coast," he notes, adding that the combination of rising sea levels, more heavy storms and higher rainfall will combine to increase the damage caused by storms and flooding here. "So Ireland is already seeing some of the things that have been forecast."
Involvement in the work of the IPCC came after some years of resisting the call to join, he says. You do not simply sign up to the panel. "The IPCC asks you. It chooses participants on the basis of expertise and other capacities and you have to be nominated. I was nominated by the National Science Foundation."
He would not have rushed to become involved in the work of the IPCC.
"I didn't volunteer for it. It is a big job." It consumed a third of his available time in the three years prior to the release of the fourth assessment report in February, he says.
His involvement was valuable to the panel however given his range of experience since his appointment in 1979 as the first professor for atmospheric science at Scripps, a leading international centre for earth sciences research.
Somerville has testified before the US Congress, briefed United Nations climate change negotiators and has advised government agencies. He has also published a book, The Forgiving Air, Understanding Environmental Change.