When is a theory not a theory?

THE TERM “conspiracy theory” commonly means a fringe theory that explains an event as the secret machinations of powerful Machiavellian conspirators. The modern popularity of such theories dates from the conspiracy theory that arose in the 1960s around the assassination of JFK. Mainstream opinion looks on conspiracy theories with a jaundiced eye and often ridicules them. Of course genuine conspiracies do exist, for example Abraham Lincoln died as a result of a conspiracy. And George Bernard Shaw said, “All professions are conspiracies against the laity”.

The word “theory” in “conspiracy theory” is used in a different sense to its use in science. A scientific theory is the agreed best explanation of a phenomenon, arrived at after long years of examining evidence and testing hypotheses by experiment. In everyday usage theory refers to a hypothesis – an informed (and sometimes not-informed) guess as to the explanation of a phenomenon. Scientific theories are falsifiable and modifiable in the light of new evidence. Conspiracy theories, eg a secret branch of government is covering-up evidence of alien visits, are often unfalsifiable. Proponents of conspiracy theories are also very resistant to contrary evidence.

Conspiracy theories are common and have grown up around well-known incidents such as: JFK's assassination; the death of Princess Diana; the 9/11 terrorist attack; the ApolloMoon landing; the Roswell UFO incident, and so on. The theme features regularly in films, books television programmes. The two most infamous conspiracy theories of the 20th century were devised by Hitler and Stalin.

Psychology attempts to explain conspiracy theories in various ways – such as attempts to provide reassurance that disturbing events are not random but are the product of human intelligence and are, therefore, potentially controllable. The projection of undesirable characteristics of the self onto the conspirators is also suggested as another impulse behind conspiracy theories. Some conspiracy theories are obviously ridiculous, for example, the claim by former television presenter David Icke that humanity is controlled by alien reptiles who assume our appearance by drinking human blood. Other such theories seize on perceived weak points in the official explanation of an event, such as why were the hijacked 9/11 aircraft not shot down?

Most conspiracy theories, in my opinion, do not withstand critical analysis. Most fail the test of Occam’s Razor, a logical principle devised by medieval philosopher William of Occam which states, “One should not increase beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything”. This “principle of parsimony” has proved itself most useful in science. Many conspiracy theories are convoluted explanations of mainstream evidence.

Finally, let me tell you my own little story of a conspiracy theory. A taxi-driver recently told me that immigrants are entitled to receive dole plus a weekly “socialising” allowance of €70, and that immigrants are entitled to a grant of €17,000 to buy a taxi. He said all taxi drivers knew this and Irish people are not entitled to these benefits.

The Department of Family and Social Affairs press office assured me that the taxi-driver’s claims are incorrect. In order to qualify for dole, everybody must first satisfy the Habitual Residence Condition, ie that their “centre of interest” is Ireland. Social welfare does not pay a “socialising allowance” and everybody, Irish and non-Irish, must be treated the same. The “socialising allowance” idea probably refers to asylum seekers. Asylum seekers are not entitled to the dole. They are housed and fed by the government while their applications for asylum are processed. In addition they are given a weekly allocation of about €40 to buy small necessary items that cannot be foreseen in detail.

Finally the notion of the €17,000 taxi grant to immigrants is a distortion of the Back to Work Enterprise Allowance scheme. This scheme is open to all who are eligible for the dole. If you can convince officials of the Department that you have a viable business idea that will get you out of the ranks of the unemployed, you may be awarded a small grant to get the enterprise started. But, buying a taxi in the present recession, with taxis already in over-supply, would hardly qualify as “a viable business idea”.

William Reville is UCC’s associate professor of biochemistry and public awareness of science officer