Sharp rise in diabetes forecast for next decade

IRELAND IS facing a 30 per cent increase in the number of people living with diabetes over the next 10 years. Almost one in 10 people over 45 is likely to be affected by the condition, a new study by the Institute of Public Health has found.

Research carried out by the institute, in conjunction with health research centres at University College Cork and Queen’s University Belfast, indicates the number of adults aged 45 and over with both diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes is expected to rise by 30 per cent to about 177,000 by 2020.

Lorraine Fahy, information analyst with the institute, said the research involved looking at data from the 2007 Survey on Lifestyles, Attitudes and Nutrition (Slan) and looking at the numbers of people aged 18 or over living with diabetes.

She said it was estimated in 2010 that some 106,000 people – 3.2 per cent of adults aged 18 or over – in the Republic had been clinically diagnosed as having diabetes in the previous 12 months.

An analysis of the Slan 2007 survey of a subset of people over 45 found that a further 41,000 people had undiagnosed diabetes, which suggests that among adults over 45, some 30 per cent of all diabetes is undiagnosed.

“The fact that a large number of adults are living with diabetes and that this number is expected to increase has significant implications for the individuals involved, their families as well as the health and social care system and Ireland’s economy,” said Ms Fahy.

Dr Anna Clarke, health promotion and research manager with the Diabetes Federation of Ireland, said the research figures were “alarming”.

A clear rise in incidents of type II diabetes, which accounts for about 90 per cent of cases, was a major concern, she said.

“These figures reflect both type I and type II diabetes but type I is an auto-immune condition and is not preventable. The big increase is in type II diabetes which can be lifestyle related in that 80 per cent of people diagnosed with type II diabetes will be overweight.

“This needs to be addressed. Rather than have the current Government spending almost 6 per cent of their total health budget on the complications of diabetes, they would be well advised to put more money into the prevention of type II diabetes,” she added.

In addition to the rise in type II diabetes, a new trend was developing where people were being diagnosed much younger, said Dr Clarke.

Fifty years ago, it was seen as a condition of older age.

People living with diabetes already have limited access to healthcare services because they are overstretched. A 30 per cent increase in the number of people presenting with diabetes will put a serious strain on the health system, she warned.

Dr Clarke’s comments were echoed by Prof Ivan Perry of the Health Research Board Centre for Health and Diet Research at UCC.