THE LAST two Irish winters delivered plenty of snow and ice, and if solar scientists are correct we had better get used to it.
The sun seems to have gone on strike and the result will be Arctic wintertime conditions across northern Europe for the next 50 years.
The sun should be getting more lively, kicking off solar storms and producing sunspots as it moves into a cyclical peak of activity.
For some reason, however, it has broken out of its normal pattern and has gone decidedly quiet, according to researchers presenting data at the American Astronomical Society annual meeting in New Mexico.
Data from a number of groups shows that solar activity has flatlined, the first time this has happened for years, said the US National Solar Observatory.
The last major example of this occurred during the Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period when no sunspots appeared during 1645-1715. This was also the time that record cold spells occurred, the Thames froze over to allow ice skating and long winters shortened the summertime growing season.
The sun was relatively quiet the last two winters even though it is supposed to be approaching a peak of activity in its 11-year sunspot cycle. The research shows the peak will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.
“This is highly unusual and unexpected,” according to Dr Frank Hill of the observatory.
Three groups using different methods all came up with the same result. The fact that they match up “is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation”, said Dr Hill.
Prof Mike Lockwood of the University of Southampton has closely studied the implications of a quiet sun, and will publish new findings within weeks.
He has already established that low solar activity causes high altitude jet stream winds to twist back on themselves during winter months. This channels bitterly cold Arctic air and frigid winds from the Russian Steppes across northern Europe and on to Ireland.
“Our evidence shows that low solar activity makes it easier for something called ‘jet stream blocking’ to occur,” he said yesterday. “I predicted a year ago there was a 10 per cent chance we would be in Maunder Minimum conditions by 2040.”
It hardly seems fair having to plan for a cold winter before Ireland’s summer has arrived. There are advantages, however, including a greater likelihood of a white Christmas.
The financially minded might try making a mint by investing in grit.