SUPPORT FOR the Lisbon Treaty has hardened over the past two weeks, according to the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll which shows the Yes side maintaining a consistent lead since the beginning of this year.
The poll shows that 54 per cent would now vote Yes, an increase of two points since the last Irish Timespoll two weeks ago, with 28 per cent saying they would vote No, a drop of one point. The number of people in the "Don't Know" category has dropped by one point to 18 per cent.
When undecided voters are excluded, the Yes side has 66 per cent, with 34 per cent in the No camp. That compares to the referendum result last June of 53.4 per cent No and 46.6 per cent Yes.
The three Irish Timespolls since the beginning of 2009 have given a remarkably consistent result on the Lisbon Treaty with a marginal increase in the Yes vote in each poll and a steady decline in support for the No campaign.
A second referendum on the Treaty expected in the autumn but the polls indicate that if the Government and main Opposition parties had been prepared to go to the country on the issue in the first half of the year the Yes side would have carried the day.
In the latest poll voters were asked how they would vote in the light of the commitment to allow Ireland to retain a European Union commissioner along with legal guarantees on other Irish concerns about neutrality, abortion and taxation.
Voters were also asked if, in the light of the current economic crisis, they thought it was better to be part of the EU. A substantial 81 per cent thought it better to be part of the EU, (up 2 points since the last poll) 10 per cent thought it was not (no change) and 9 per cent had no opinion (down 2 points). The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday of last week, among a representative sample of 2,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 200 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is 2 per cent.
Fianna Fáil voters are the most enthusiastic supporters of the treaty by a margin of 66 per cent to 20 per cent. Among Fine Gael voters there is also sold backing by a margin of 62 per cent to 24 per cent and there is also strong support among the Greens with 61 per cent in favour and 25 per cent in the No camp.
Labour Party voters are more enthusiastic than in the last poll with 59 per cent saying they would vote Yes and 27 per cent No.
Sinn Féin are the only party whose supporters still back the No campaign with 57 per cent against and 24 per cent in favour.
Despite the hardening of the Yes vote women are still decidedly less enthusiastic then men about Lisbon but a significant proportion have moved from the No side into the Don’t know category.
Among men, the Yes side commands the support of 59 per cent with 26 per cent No and 15 per cent Don’t Know. Among women, support for the Yes side drops to 50 per cent with 29 per cent Don’t Know and 21 per cent undecided. In class terms there is now overwhelming support for Lisbon among the better-off AB voters, with 71 per cent in favour and only 16 per cent No.