THE SURGE in support for Fine Gael has gathered pace since the election campaign began, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, which also shows that Enda Kenny is now the preferred choice for taoiseach.
Fine Gael has gained four points in a little over two weeks but would need to make a similar gain in the final days of the campaign to have a chance of winning an overall majority in the next Dáil.
The Labour Party has slipped significantly since the start of the campaign and looks like being in a battle with Fianna Fáil for second place when the votes are counted next weekend.
The slide in Fianna Fáil support has been halted and the party is up marginally. The Greens are also up slightly, while Sinn Féin has dropped a little.
When people were asked who they would vote for if there were a general election tomorrow, the figures for party support (when undecided voters were excluded) compared with the last Irish Times poll on February 3rd were: Fianna Fáil, 16 per cent (up one point); Fine Gael, 37 per cent (up four points); Labour, 19 per cent (down five points); Sinn Féin, 11 per cent (down one point); Green Party, 2 per cent (up one point); and Independents/Others, 15 per cent (no change).
The poll was taken last Thursday and Friday, with a week to go in the campaign, among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.
The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last poll was: Fianna Fáil, 13 per cent (up one point); Fine Gael, 30 per cent (up four points); Labour, 16 per cent (down three points); Sinn Féin, 9 per cent (no change); Green Party, 1 per cent (no change); Independents/ Others, 12 per cent (up one point); and undecided voters, 19 per cent (down three points).
In a reflection of his and his party’s strong campaign to date, Mr Kenny’s personal rating has improved significantly and he has pulled ahead of Labour leader Eamon Gilmore and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin as the preferred choice for taoiseach.
When voters were asked who they would prefer to see as taoiseach after the election, Mr Kenny had the support of 34 per cent (up 10 points); Mr Martin was on 22 per cent (down one point); and Mr Gilmore was on 21 per cent (down five points).
The strength of the swing to Fine Gael is reflected in the fact that the party now has more support in every region of the country than any other party.
Fine Gael has passed out Labour in Dublin for the first time in recent years.
The biggest gains have been among middle-class voters, a group where Labour was in the lead as recently as last autumn.
In line with Fine Gael’s rise, the satisfaction rating of the party leader has continued its upward trend.
Mr Kenny is on 37 per cent (up seven points); Mr Martin is on 29 per cent (up four points); Mr Gilmore is on 40 per cent (down four points); John Gormley is on 19 per cent (up four points); and Gerry Adams is on 29 per cent (up two points).
A Fine Gael-Labour coalition is still the preferred choice of government after the election but there has been a significant increase in the numbers backing a Fine Gael minority government supported by Independents.
Satisfaction with the way the Government is doing its job has remained at a record low of 4 per cent and satisfaction with outgoing Taoiseach Brian Cowen is up two points to 10 per cent.
The poll shows 68 per cent of people have definitely made up their minds how they will vote, but 30 per cent may still change their minds.
The five-point decline in support for Labour over the past three weeks will worry the party. The poll was taken after the party’s negative newspaper advertisement campaign targeting Fine Gael and it indicates that the tactic has not worked.
With only a few days’ campaigning left, the party will be hoping for a strong performance from Mr Gilmore in the televised leaders’ debate tomorrow night to turn the tide.
The marginal increase in Fianna Fáil support will come as a relief to the party after months of unremittingly bad news. It is now in with a real chance in the battle with Labour for second place.
The Sinn Féin share of the national vote is holding steady. The party’s support is strongest in Connacht-Ulster but it has slipped in Dublin and Munster.
Green Party support has increased from a very low base and the party still has a chance of holding a small number of seats.
Independents and Others have held on to the 15 per cent support achieved in the last poll and will be strongly represented in the next Dáil.
The Irish Times has the best colour writing with John Waters gauging voter intentions in Roscommon and Miriam Lord joining Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny at a homecoming rally in Castlebar.
The newspaper also features analysis of today’s poll results by Stephen Collins and Damian Loscher.
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