THE DRAMATIC swing in the final days of the presidential election campaign that propelled Michael D Higgins into the highest office in the land shows how volatile the Irish electorate can be.
Coming hot on the heels of a general election that brought about fundamental changes in the party system, it sends a message that nobody in politics can take their current status for granted.
The point was reinforced by the results of the two referendums. In one, the Government secured a comfortable victory; in the other, it suffered a shock defeat.
Nothing highlighted the volatility of the electorate like the way in which Seán Gallagher’s comfortable 15-point opinion poll lead was turned on its head in a few days and he ultimately ended up 11 points behind Michael D Higgins.
The outcome was a personal triumph for the veteran Labour politician, who has made the long journey from the left-wing firebrand of the 1970s and 1980s to the status of widely admired first citizen.
When coupled with the result of the Dublin West byelection, it was also a stunning victory for the Labour Party.
Only last February, Fine Gael experienced the greatest electoral triumph in its history and became the biggest party in the state for the first time. Yet in the presidential election the party’s candidate was pushed into a humiliating fourth place with just 6 per cent of the popular vote.
By contrast Labour had a relatively disappointing general election but has now seized the presidency for the second time.
The Coalition can take comfort from aspects of the presidential election result. For a start, the office has been won by one of the Government parties. The fact that success this time around went to the junior partner will help cement the good relations between the two parties.
When the total vote for the two Coalition candidates is added up it comes to 46 per cent. That represents a drop of just under 10 per cent since the general election. It could have been far worse considering that party affiliation was not uppermost in the minds of an electorate open to the notion of a president from outside the ranks of party politicians.
For Fine Gael, however, the result is an unmitigated disaster for which everybody in the party, from the leadership down, must take some responsibility. It was obvious to those in the know last summer that Taoiseach Enda Kenny and his most senior Ministers had grave doubts from the beginning about Gay Mitchell’s capacity to mount a reasonable show, never mind win the contest.
Instead of letting the parliamentary party know its views, the leadership backed off for fear of a damaging row. Kenny professed himself neutral as between the three candidates for the party nomination and his internal enemies, who have not gone away, advanced Mitchell’s cause in an unrelenting campaign among the backbenchers.
Most of the party’s new TDs, as well as the councillors and activists who made up the selection convention college, were blithely unaware of what was going on. It was a reflection of political naivety among new TDs, and on the part of a leadership, that didn’t have the courage to call a spade a spade.
The result is a salutary reminder to Fine Gael that it can take nothing for granted and its status as the biggest party in the Republic could be taken away by the voters as quickly as it was granted.
Losing the presidency could have more immediate consequences in government if it undermines Fine Gael’s confidence. Hugely difficult choices have to be made in the budget and Labour, buoyed up by its presidential and byelection victories, is now much more likely to get things its own way.
By contrast Labour will be encouraged to believe that by choosing the right tactics in office and the right candidates in elections, the long-term ambition of becoming the biggest party in the State could be realised sooner than anybody thought possible.
For Fianna Fáil the events of the past few days have given some grounds for hope. Last February’s disastrous election result raised the question of whether it had a future. Now the Independent ex-party candidate Seán Gallagher has finished second in the presidential race and in Dublin West the party’s own candidate was also a creditable second.
Rumours of Fianna Fáil’s demise have certainly been exaggerated and as long as it makes the right choices about its long-term strategy the party can face the future with some confidence. Its decision during the summer not to nominate a candidate for the presidential election was widely perceived as a mistake. but Gallagher’s performance and more particularly that of David McGuinness in Dublin West have demonstrated that the Fianna Fáil brand will not necessarily remain toxic.
Strong candidates who were not associated in the public mind with the decisions that led to the economic crash performed creditably. That could be a problem for party leader Micheál Martin as he will continue to have a hard time living down his role in government. But his younger colleagues can now begin to believe that they have a future worth fighting for.
Sinn Féin sought to use the presidential election as an opportunity to exploit Fianna Fáil’s weakness and make a grab for its vote. After a good general election Sinn Féin has been breathing down Fianna Fáil’s neck for the status of main Opposition party in the Dáil and the decision to run the North’s Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness was clearly taken with an eye to furthering that strategy.
A month ago the decision to run McGuinness was widely hailed as a master stroke that would enable it to fulfil that objective. But things are not looking quite as rosy now after a disappointing result that did not advance the party’s vote by nearly as much as it had hoped.
In return for a modest increase in the national vote, Sinn Féin has been subjected to an unremitting focus on the past activities of the Provisional IRA. In the long term that could prove more damaging than the short-term gain in votes. The reaction in the Republic seems to have come as a big surprise to the party’s Northern leadership and how they move to deal with it will be interesting.
The vote attracted by Independent candidates in the presidential election showed there is an appetite among voters for an alternative to established politicians. In the end, the leading Independent, Seán Gallagher, faltered because of his Fianna Fáil links but he was tantalisingly close with only days to go.
In the end, as happened in the general election, the prize was ultimately won by an experienced politician.
The referendum defeat which would have given the Dáil and Seanad more power to conduct inquiries, also shows that the public is capable of turning on the establishment if it feels it is being taken for granted.
There are implications for any future referendums but also for the political system itself if decisions on major issues of public importance are not clearly and adequately explained to the voters.