The factions within Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF party appear to be heading towards a decisive showdown at its December elective conference that could result in a split in the former liberation movement.
The issue of who will succeed Mugabe (90) as head of the ruling party has remained unresolved despite his advanced years. However it is widely believed that two main factions are vying for control of the movement that has ruled Zimbabwe since independence from white minority rule in 1980.
Until Mugabe’s wife, Grace (49), entered into the political arena last month there had been little public feuding by those involved in the behind-the-scenes struggle to position themselves for a tilt at leading the ruling party.
But since the former presidential secretary was nominated to lead Zanu-PF's women's movement in September, she has launched a number of unprecedented public attacks on the country's and party's vice-president, Joyce Mujuru.
Last week, while seeking support from war veterans, she repeatedly criticised Mujuru for plotting to oust her husband at the elective conference, and called on the movement’s vice-president to resign.
“Mujuru has done nothing since her appointment because she spent her time eyeing the president’s post. I don’t see how she is capable of leading this country,” she told the crowd.
In addition, Mugabe, who married her husband in 1996, confirmed for the first time that she had her own presidential ambitions despite being better known for extravagant shopping trips abroad than any political achievements.
Mujuru is the leader of what analysts say is the more moderate of the two factions within Zanu-PF and is popular among grass root supporters. On Sunday, she rejected the “false claims” that she was trying to topple Zimbabwe’s longstanding president.
She and her supporters are seen as a pro-business group that would try to move the party away from its extremist ideology and mend relationships with the western governments Mugabe repeatedly lambasts and blames for his country’s economic plight.
Mujuru's main rival for the party's top position is powerful justice minister Emmerson Mnangagwa, a man Mugabe has gone to great lengths to laud on her recent tour of the country's provinces.
Mnangagwa, who was minister for defence and security in past governments, is seen as a party hardliner. He was allegedly behind the massacre by the military of tens of thousands of Ndebele people in the country’s south in the 1980s, which was carried out on Mugabe’s orders.
His supporters are mostly made up of the Zanu-PF old guard, and many observers suspect they would continue with the Mugabe-style politics of anti-western sentiment to ward off having to face the allegations of human rights abuses in international court.
At this stage, Mujuru has the backing of most the party’s provincial leaders and as a result appears to be in the ascendancy in terms of party support, as this group plays a central role in electing Zanu-PF’s top positions.
But loyalty is said to be a fluid concept within the ruling party, and while the military and state security agencies do not have a vote when it comes to electing in who will lead the ruling party, they do have influence in the proceedings.
Until recently Mnangagwa has kept his cards close to his chest regarding his political ambitions, but according to Zimbabwe's Newsday newspaper yesterday he told supporters at the weekend he has been Mugabe's most trusted lieutenant over the past 35 years.
Some analysts suspect Mnangagwa is the hidden hand co-ordinating Grace Mugabe’s attacks on his rival, while it is believed she is entering politics to protect her young family and wealth, given that her husband’s time as president is coming to an end.
If her position as head of the Zanu-PF Women’s League is confirmed at the party’s congress on December 2nd next she would be propelled into Zanu-PF’s politburo, the party’s highest decision-making body.
The latest intrigue within Zanu-PF has also prompted the party’s broader network of stakeholders to speculate that Mr Mugabe’s position as party leader is under serious threat.
Chairman of Zimbabwe’s National Liberation War Veterans Association Jabulani Sibanda has warned that Mugabe’s wife was unwittingly being used by elements within the party involved in a “sinister plot” to oust him.
Mr Mugabe had said little publicly about the recent tensions, but last week he condemned the “war” going on in Zanu-PF. “People want positions, they want to even push senior people out,” he said.
