Is Japan ready for its first female prime minister?

By the end of the month, Japan will effectively have a new leader and, unusually, two of the four candidates are women. That has led to speculation that the nation might finally get its first female prime minister.

Japan is regularly rapped for its lack of diversity: about 10 per cent of politicians in its lower house are women. The gender index published annually by the World Economic Forum ranks Japan in 120th place out of 150 countries.

Of course, other rich countries – including Ireland and the United States – have never been led by a woman either. Germany's Angela Merkel is the only woman at the helm of a G20 country. Moreover, Tokyo is run by Yuriko Koike, a powerful female politician.

A conservative who admires former UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher,  [Takaichi] has taken a strong line against perennial women's issues

But Koike, herself once a prime ministerial hopeful, is the first to acknowledge that women have a way to go. “I wonder why Japan, without the presence of the Taliban, has been lagging far behind other countries on female empowerment,” she joked in somewhat bad taste after campaigning began this month.

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The prospect of a gender realignment in the world’s third-largest economy has, thus, livened up an otherwise dull race.

Sanae Takaichi, a former internal affairs minister, and Seiko Noda, who was once in charge of gender equality and women's empowerment, have entered the political bear pit with two former foreign ministers, Taro Kono and Fumio Kishida, to lead the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Whoever wins the leadership election on September 29th will almost certainly become prime minister. The winner will lead the party in a general election that must be held on or before November 28th.

Giving the contest added spice, LDP faction bosses have allowed lawmakers to choose who they want rather than dictating the party vote, as tradition rules. That should mean a more open race to replace the unpopular prime minister Yoshihide Suga, who was foisted on the public last year after the party's big factions backed him.

Feminists have a hard time getting behind Takaichi (60). A conservative who admires former UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher, she has taken a strong line against perennial women's issues, such as allowing married women to keep their own surnames. She rejects legal changes that would allow women to become emperor of the world's oldest monarchy.

Takaichi’s biography, roughly translated as “Toward a Beautiful, Strong, Growing Nation”, suggests she is animated by nationalism, not feminism. Among her proposals is a hike in military spending to deter Chinese aggression and legislation that would allow Japan to attack enemy military bases. The book includes passages lauding the splendour of the Japanese people and their DNA, which she claims has remained unchanged for millennia.

The upshot is that both female candidates face very long odds, but it is their candidacy itself that is notable

By contrast, Noda (61) has spoken in favour of challenging gender bias and pledged to put women in half of all cabinet posts. She may be best known in Japan for her very public struggles to have a child, which climaxed in 2011 when she gave birth to a son – at the age of 50 – conceived from a foreign egg donor.

However, Noda polls last in opinion surveys on who should lead the country. Most put Kono well ahead, followed by Kishida. Kono, who is popular with the public and the party grass-roots but makes LDP bosses nervous, is predicted to win in the first round of voting among the rank-and-file but fall short of a majority. That would give LDP lawmakers control in the run-off vote, in which Kishida is likely to have an advantage.

The upshot is that both female candidates face very long odds, but it is their candidacy itself that is notable. LDP rules dictate that candidates need at least 20 nominations from lawmakers to run for the leadership, which has effectively put women at the mercy of the male party bosses. The suspicion persists that the bosses still pull the strings: Takaichi is a protege of Shinzo Abe, Japan's still powerful former prime minister, and Noda failed three times to get the support needed for a nomination.

It looks like Japan may have to wait a while longer for its first female leader.