Yoshihide Suga (71), who is expected to become Japan's leader next week, earned his political spurs as prime minister's Shinzo Abe's loyal enforcer during nearly eight years as the government's top spokesman.
Throughout those years he was one of the most recognisable faces in the country, thanks to two televised press conferences a day. But until recently, few ordinary Japanese people could tell you much about him.
Suga was an unsmiling, schoolmaster-like presence at the lectern. On the handful of occasions when he showed emotion it was to snap back irritably at questions or journalists he didn’t like.
What he lacks in charisma he makes up with doggedness and drive. In a nation where many politicians (including Abe) are scions of political dynasties, Suga is considered an outsider: he was raised in a farming family in a remote rural village.
He paid his way through night school and university by working in a string of manual jobs, according to his official profile. He excelled at steady political graft, first in a long apprenticeship as secretary to a politician, then running for local office in 1987.
Suga loyally stuck by Abe during his wilderness years, until his return to the prime minister’s office in 2012. He is credited with helping to rebrand Abe, softening the overt right-wing politics that marked his disastrous first term in 2006-07, and shifting his focus to economics.
Backroom deals
His success in Monday's election to succeed Abe as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) – Abe announced he was standing down as prime minister last month, due to ill-health – was never in much doubt. The backroom deals to get him into the prime minister's chair began months ago. He had the support of most of the party's factions before he announced his candidacy.
The LDP’s majority in the lower house means he is almost guaranteed to be confirmed prime minister.
Suga's strongest opponent, Shigeru Ishiba, a former defence minister, though far more popular with the public and party rank-and-file, is an outspoken critic of Abe. Ishiba and former foreign minister Fumio Kishida will be hoping for a second shot in the event that the Suga administration is short-lived (a general election must be held by late next year).
Suga is unlikely to deviate too far from the course set by Abe, who helmed the government to six straight election victories. He has already signalled a continuation of Abenomics, the mix of muscular monetary intervention, fiscal expansiveness and structural reform that the government sold to a sceptical public in 2013.
Once considered novel, the policy mix has become the de-facto standard for countries struggling with the same aging populations, high public debt, and low growth as Japan. "We are probably all Japanese now," concluded a study produced for the European Parliament last year:
Pandemic challenge
Suga will need luck, however. Unlike Abe, who took office during a global upswing, his successor assumes charge of an economy pummelled by a global pandemic. Abroad, he must find ways to deal with rising China (whose economy nearly doubled in size during Abe's tenure) and an unpredictable United States.
He also faces a renewed opposition, which split after Abe took power. A united front of about 150 opposition lawmakers, though still lacking the heft of the LDP, may have a better chance than any party in a decade at scoring points against the new leader.
“Japan is facing a crisis unlike anything we have ever experienced,” Suga said after he announced his candidacy, which has made much of his humble origins in Japan’s snowy north. “No matter how harsh the winter is, spring will come and the snow will melt,” said Suga, adding the countryside has taught him “perseverance”. He will need it in the coming months.
