It is difficult to see how David Cameron can have a big win in the fight he has picked over Britain's contribution to the EU budget. Britain has been told that it is due to pay a top up of €2.1 billion by December 1st, based on the fact that the level of Britain's economic activity was greater than previously estimated. Assuming the calculations and the methodology used to make them are correct, it is difficult to see how the British prime minister can avoid paying, even if Britain is given more time to do so. Britain is not being picked on here. The EU budget operates on an "ability to pay" basis, with the richer countries paying more.
By reacting with fury at last week’s EU summit, Mr Cameron also looked unprepared for something he should have seen coming. Britain’s gross national income had been revised upwards and his officials must have been aware of the consequences. Mr Cameron complained that the presentation of the bill at the summit was an “appalling way to behave”. But perhaps a lower key response might have served the prime minister better, rather than escalating the dispute into a major stand-off.
Of course Mr Cameron is being driven by domestic political considerations. The anti-EU United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) is making significant gains and appears on course to win next month's by-election in Rochester. He is also facing pressure from within his own party's eurosceptic ranks. The danger is that the row over Britain's budget contribution could push Mr Cameron even further into a corner. He may have won Conservative cheers as he promised to pick through the calculations in "exhaustive detail" and not to pay by December 1st. But unless Britain can win an argument on the technicalities of how the sum was calculated, it will have to pay the money or face fines of at least 2 per cent of the total bill plus 0.25 per cent for each month of delay. Any renegotiation of the budget contribution requires a qualified majority of member states in the European Council.
Mr Cameron's latest stand-off with Brussels coincides with a debate in Britain about opting back into a range of EU justice and home affairs measures, including the European arrest warrant. A potentially divisive vote will be held in the Commons on this before December. Then there are the demands which will come from Britain to negotiate key changes ahead of Mr Cameron's planned referendum on EU membership in 2017 with signs that the British government will look for changes in fundamental areas such as the freedom of movement of people. Ahead of next year's general election, Europe is again becoming a key issue in British politics and the vulnerable position of the Conservatives suggests more clashes lie ahead. There are significant dangers for both Britain and Europe unless the current dispute over the budget contribution can be defused.