Deepening political uncertainty adds to bleak Balkan picture for refugees

At certain moments, at certain places on the Balkan migration route into Europe, it can seem that a spirit of co-operation is finally overcoming the chaos and rancour that have dominated the European Union's response to the refugee crisis.

In southeastern Slovenia, 136 police officers from eight other EU states are now helping local colleagues patrol the border and monitor thousands of refugees and migrants that cross the country each day on their way from Croatia to Austria.

"They represent a great asset and contribution" to Slovenia's handling of some 415,000 people who have transited its territory since October, said Robert Perc, a spokesman for this rural and previously uneventful part of the country. At the same time, Slovenia and Croatia have defused the anger of two months ago, when Slovenia unfurled razor wire along their border and Croatia delivered busloads of migrants unannounced to remote and unguarded points on the frontier.

"Now we have a schedule of when trains will arrive, and numbers are controlled," Perc said at the Dobova transit camp, to which refugees and migrants are transported from a similar facility at Slavonski Brod in eastern Croatia.

Sending buses

“We are moving forward with our co-operation with Croatia, and everything is harmonised. In a similar way, we harmonise with Austria over sending buses and trains there. It means that most people spend only about three hours here.”

The situation is now stable at Dobova, even though on average more than 2,000 people still pass through here each day, far more than were expected to risk the crossing to Greece and trans-Balkan trek during winter. But having seen the crisis up close since the first migrants' chaotic arrival here, when Hungary sealed its border with Croatia last October, Perc knows better than to assume that this calm will last."We could have changes at any time," he said, "so I don't want to make predictions."

Those changes could come as soon as this week, when Austrian authorities plan to start turning back people at the Slovenian border who do not intend to seek asylum in Austria or Germany.

Since the start of the year, Germany has used the same grounds to turn away hundreds of people at its border with Austria, and Vienna wants to ensure the country does not accumulate "trapped" migrants who cannot go forward or back. Bostjan Sefic, Slovenia's state secretary in charge of migration issues, said his country was talking to Germany and Austria about how to co-ordinate measures, but would have to act to defend its interests if necessary. "If things don't develop the right way, if there is a risk that we will become a kind of 'pocket' [for trapped migrants], then we will have to take appropriate measures," he said.

The developments are causing alarm in Croatia, which is still seeking a new government following close-run elections last November. Miro Kovac, international secretary of the right-wing HDZ party that is expected to lead a new ruling coalition, warned Croatia would seek to seal its borders rather than become “a collection centre for refugees”.

"If Slovenia and Austria close their borders, then Croatia will have to do the same, which will cause a domino effect, so Serbia will have to do the same on its border with Macedonia, " Kovac said.

Heavy snowfall

No Balkan state has the resources to accommodate many thousands of migrants for long periods, let alone during a winter that is already bringing heavy snowfall and night-time temperatures of minus 10 degrees.

Deepening political uncertainty now adds to the bleak Balkan picture, after Serbia's prime minister on Sunday unexpectedly called for parliamentary elections this spring – two years early – to give his party "a full mandate for tough decisions". Macedonia also threatens to lurch into political limbo, after a western-brokered deal for its scandal-ridden government to step down hit trouble last Friday over preparations for a snap election in April. "The country is in a very difficult strategic situation," visiting EU enlargement commissioner Johannes Hahn said on Saturday.

“There is a very serious migration crisis in Europe. What we have seen in 2015 will certainly continue in 2016. Looking into the discussions in many European countries, there is a growing tendency to close borders and this might have an immediate effect on the situation here in the country.”

To the north in Slovenia, Perc said his police colleagues were ready for anything. “We will adapt to cope,” he said, “but we have no idea what will arise.”