Doubts loom over renewed coalition talks in Berlin

After 10 weeks of false starts and coalition cul-de-sacs, German leader Angela Merkel has held her first face-to-face meeting with wary Social Democrats (SPD) in a bid to secure a fourth term in office.

Dr Merkel, acting chancellor and leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), happily swept past the Christmas tree before Bellevue Palace to accept an invitation to talks by President Frank Walter Steinmeier.

But SPD leader Martin Schulz, openly sceptical of backing Germany’s third grand coalition since 2005, has made clear his party will neither be rushed nor a push-over in the looming talks.

What unites all leaders in these exploratory talks is that they are all negotiating from a position of weakness, not strength.

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After 12 years, Merkel fatigue is palpable in Germany. After her party scored its worst result in almost 70 years many younger CDU politicians, until now conspicuously inconspicuous, are openly sniping against her in public.

Ruled out

For Mr Schulz, the humiliation of his even worse election disaster for the SPD has been compounded in the last days, after senior party officials demanded he attend exploratory grand coalition talks which he previously ruled out.

A third partner at the table is Horst Seehofer, leader of Bavaria’s Christian Social Union (CSU) and sister party to Dr Merkel’s CDU. After nine years as Bavarian governor, however, Mr Seehofer is a political dead man walking and likely to be replaced on Monday.

All eyes in these talks are on Dr Merkel, chastened by failed coalition talks almost two weeks ago. With one final – SPD – option for a fourth term, she has ladled on the praise for their previous two grand coalitions in recent days.

Though ostensibly rivals, the two have common ground on foreign policy and the European Union, but differ on crucial details. The SPD, in particular, is far more sympathetic to French president Emmanuel Macron’s euro zone reform plans.

Unlike the Green Party in recent talks, the SPD is not likely to drive as hard a bargain on capping refugee numbers.

Fiscal affairs

Compromise is also likely on greater spending on police, schools and Germany’s creaking infrastructure, from bridges to internet lines. But differences loom on fiscal affairs: the CDU wants to retain Germany’s balanced budget while the SPD is determined to start spending again to boost social equity.

Though the SPD has a strong negotiating position – Angela Merkel has nowhere else to go – centre-left leaders are also feeling the pressure. President Steinmeier has warned his own SPD that all options must be exhausted before he will allow a fresh elections.

Voters are unlikely to reward any party that sends them back to polls and SPD rank-and-file, wary of renewed Merkel co-operation, will be vocal in those doubts at next week’s SPD party conference.