Recep Tayyip Erdogan's victory in Sunday's presidential election in Turkey was, with 52 per cent of the vote, a little less emphatic than the polls had predicted. But it was enough to avoid a run-off and to ensure that, after 11 years as prime minister, he will become his country's first directly elected head of state. The result is, above all, a tribute to Mr Erdogan's successful stewardship of the Turkish economy, which has tripled in size since his neo-Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) took office in 2002.
His policies have improved infrastructure and increased living standards, making it the world's first large, Muslim-majority society to become majority middle class. Mr Erdogan advanced Kurdish linguistic and cultural rights and secured a ceasefire from the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) last year, something that eluded his predecessors for more than three decades.
He has shown a darker, authoritarian side in recent years, however, jailing journalists in record numbers, cracking down harshly on opposition demonstrators and attempting to stop Turkish citizens from accessing Twitter and YouTube. In foreign policy, he has turned away from Europe, partly out of disappointment with the European Union's lack of enthusiasm for Turkish membership. Instead, Turkey has sought to become a regional power in the Middle East, a strategy that has mixed results, so that Ankara is now at odds with almost all its neighbours apart from the Iraqi Kurds.
Mr Erdogan has hinted that he will take an expansive view of the role of president, moving Turkey towards an executive presidency similar to that in France. Under the current constitution, Turkey's president has much broader powers than the largely ceremonial role enjoyed by Ireland's or Germany's. The Turkish president can delay legislation, appoint high court judges, chair the National Security Council and call and lead cabinet meetings. If he uses these powers to the full, Mr Erdogan is likely to remain Turkey's strongman.