Macron diplomatic move on Moscow appears to stall imminent threat

President Emmanuel Macron was the first to admit that "I do not believe we can resolve this crisis in a few hours of discussion." But the mood music in the three-month-old confrontation between Russia and Nato over Russian threats to Ukraine changed markedly on Wednesday when Macron returned from his marathon trip to Moscow, Kyiv and Berlin.

"There were positive signals about the decision of Ukraine to act solely on the basis of the Minsk accords, and that is a plus," the Kremlin's spokesman Dmitri Peskov said, referring to agreements signed in 2014 and 2015 but never fully implemented.

Kyiv also responded positively to Macron's mission. "Today there are real chances for a diplomatic solution," the Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said, describing the situation as "tense but under control".

Macron says he has obtained a "dual commitment" from Russia and Ukraine to respect the Minsk accords, upon which he founded his diplomatic mission. Representatives from the so-called Normandy group, comprising France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, will meet again in Berlin on Thursday. If negotiations make progress, leaders of those four countries may hold a summit in the coming weeks.

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Macron was the first western head of state to meet with Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, in person since the crisis started. The next important step will be a trip to Moscow by German chancellor Olaf Scholz on February 15th.

Macron’s diplomatic initiative was severely criticised by foreign media and his domestic opponents. “Emmanuel Macron walked into the grizzly bear’s den – and he got mauled,” Politico reported. When the Kremlin contested Macron’s claim that Putin had promised no new troop manoeuvres, the British Daily Mail crowed, “Russia makes a fool of Macron by denying that Putin agreed on Ukraine deal”.

Five-hour meeting

The far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen called Macron "the little telegraph operator for Nato and the European Union". She accused Macron of lying when he said that he had "obtained that there will be neither deterioration nor escalation" after his five-hour meeting with Putin. Le Pen received Russian funding for her previous presidential campaign and wants to take France out of Nato's integrated command.

East European countries with a history of domination by Russia warn that Putin cannot be trusted. Le Monde this week warned that Macron risks “playing into Putin’s hand”.

Hubert Védrine, a former foreign minister, dismisses such arguments. “If you study the cold war, the USSR was much more dangerous, more threatening, and better armed, but American leaders were never afraid of talking to Moscow and they negotiated important arms controls treaties”.

Macron has benefited from five years of experience. In the past, he was faulted for failing to consult allies. In the Ukraine crisis, he has assiduously informed EU and Nato allies at every step of negotiations. On returning to Paris on Wednesday, he rang US president Joe Biden and the leaders of the Baltic states. He has brought Europe into a diplomatic process from which Putin had excluded it. And the Élysée has dramatically improved its relations with the press by providing frequent briefings.

Best performance

Macron said his objective was “to restore collective order, stability and security on our continent”. Did he succeed? “It’s too soon to tell,” says Védrine. “But imagine if he had done nothing. People would have said, ‘Macron holds the rotating presidency of Europe. He’s been building a relationship with Putin for years, and he does nothing!’ He would have been attacked.”

Macron has, in fact, delivered one of his best performances. Images of an impossibly long conference table between him and Putin were widely mocked on social media, with a pastiche of Leonardo’s Last Supper filling in the space between the two leaders, a couple ice-skating on the table, or a ping-pong net set in the middle.

Putin kept Macron waiting, then stared icily at him from a distance. The Russian leader warned that Europe would "automatically" be dragged into a nuclear war if Ukraine joined Nato and then tried to retake Crimea, which Russia invaded in 2014. He made a lewd joke about Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and told the press conference that Macron had "tortured" him with his verbosity.

Through it all, Macron was his usual earnest, serious, unflappable self. He says the Ukraine crisis takes up most of his time these days. Asked during the journey when he would announce his candidacy for re-election, he replied, “I will have to think about that at some point.”

Macron is playing for high stakes but, notwithstanding Le Pen’s criticism, he has nothing to lose domestically. French voters will give him credit for trying to resolve one of the world’s most intractable crises. It is a very long shot, but if Macron succeeds, it could copperfasten his re-election and secure the admiration of his peers and, who knows, maybe even a Nobel Peace Prize.