Support for Erdogan to be tested in Turkish local elections

Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan turns to the ballot box that has favoured him over a decade today in his battle to ward off graft allegations and stem a stream of damaging security leaks he blames on "traitors" embedded in the Turkish state.

The municipal elections have become a crisis referendum on the rule of Mr Erdogan and his Islamist-rooted AK Party and he has been crisscrossing the nation of 77 million people during weeks of hectic campaigning to rally his conservative core voters.

"They are all traitors," Mr Erdogan said of his opponents at a rally in Istanbul, Turkey's commercial capital, yesterday. "Let them do what they want. Go to the ballot box tomorrow and teach all of them a lesson ... Let's give them an Ottoman slap."

Mr Erdogan has purged some 7,000 people from the judiciary and police since anti-graft raids in December targeting businessmen close to him and sons of ministers. Mr Erdogan blames the probe on a secretive Islamic cleric, a former ally, who he says is using supporters in the police to try to topple the government.

The AK Party, which swept to power in 2002 on a platform of eradicating the graft that blights Turkish life, hopes to equal or better its overall 2009 vote of 38.8 per cent and markets have steadied this week in expectation of such a result.

A vote of less than 36 per cent, not considered likely, would be a huge blow for Mr Erdogan and could unleash AKP power struggles. A vote of more than 45 per cent, some fear, could herald a period of harsh reckoning with opponents in politics and state bodies.

Sinan Ulgen, head of Istanbul's Edam think-tank, said hopes the polls may bring stability and clarity may prove unfounded.

“We have arrived at the stage where the opposition now challenges Erdogan’s legitimacy to rule not on the basis of electoral support, of him losing popular support, but arguing that he is no longer eligible and fit to rule until he fully answers allegations against him of corruption,” he said.

"This is a new era for Turkey. "

Uncertainty has taken its toll on the stock market and on the Turkish lira, which has lost four percent of its value this year. Many foreign and domestic investors are awaiting the elections and their aftermath before making decisions.

AK’s chief opponent, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), portrays Mr Erdogan as a corrupt dictator ready to hang on to power by any means. Capture of the capital Ankara or Istanbul would allow them to claim some form of victory.

Mr Erdogan formed the AKP in 2001, attracting nationalists and centre-right economic reformers as well as religious conservatives who form his base. Since his 2011 poll victory he has in his statements moved more towards these core supporters.

“Erdogan is a strong leader. He does not buckle in the face of hardship,” said Aliye, 42, at an Istanbul rally. “Now he is under attack, the state is under attack.”

Reuters