Yulia Tymoshenko in fight for political survival in Ukraine

She led Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, and seemed poised for a glorious comeback when freed from jail in February after another pro-western uprising.

But for Yulia Tymoshenko, the former braided darling of Ukraine’s reform movement and its European and US supporters, the priority in Sunday’s parliamentary election is not reclaiming power, but securing political survival.

Ukraine’s polls are notoriously unreliable, but none has shown Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party making a late surge. Most show her losing ground to new parties with leaders who threaten to eclipse her.

In the most recent survey, Fatherland was predicted to garner just 4.7 per cent of votes – below the 5 per cent threshold required to secure a place in parliament.

Such a failure could put an end to a political career of dizzying highs and desperate lows, but no one is yet ready to write off the fierce competitor and veteran campaigner, who for years fought toe-to-toe with Russian-backed president Viktor Yanukovich.

Swept into power

The Orange Revolution overturned Yanukovich’s fraudulent election “victory” and swept Tymoshenko into power as prime minister, alongside ally

Viktor Yushchenko

as president.

But their coalition was a disaster, and years of bickering, blocked reforms and festering corruption allowed Yanukovich and his party to stage a comeback. He took power in 2010 – beating Tymoshenko to the presidency by a whisker.

Before long, she was accused of abusing her power as premier by agreeing a 2009 gas deal with Russia that was allegedly ruinously expensive for Ukraine.

In October 2011 Tymoshenko was jailed for seven years, in what her allies at home and major western powers called a blatant case of political persecution by prosecutors and courts loyal to Yanukovich.

From jail in the eastern city of Kharkiv – far from her power base in nationalist western Ukraine – Tymoshenko became a symbol of Ukraine’s struggle to oust Yanukovich, shrug off Russian influence and forge strong ties with the EU and US.

Her release became the final obstacle for Ukraine’s agreement of a historic trade and political deal with the EU last year. Yanukovich’s refusal to free her and sign the pact – and the riot police’s brutal attack on students that protested against his decision – sparked the uprising that ousted him in February.

The day after Yanukovich fled, Tymoshenko’s allies in parliament pushed through her release from jail, and on that same Saturday evening she was flown back to Kiev for what her supporters and many foreign observers expected to be a spectacular homecoming.

Thanked the crowd

On a night of extraordinary drama, a frail-looking Tymoshenko was brought on to the stage of Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) in a wheelchair. She tearfully thanked the huge crowd for saving her country and saving her from jail.

But no matter how she tried, the rapturous welcome home never quite materialised. There were cheers and applause, but among them were a few boos and whistles as well, and placards telling the world that the revolution – in which more than 100 people had died – was not for Tymoshenko, other oligarchs or members of the old political elite.

As if not believing that the nation could really have decided that her time had passed, Tymoshenko rallied her old allies and ran in the May presidential election, rousing herself to fight for a post that she perhaps dreamed of while in jail.

The fight was over after one round, and the verdict was crushing: Petro Poroshenko, with whom Tymoshenko had repeatedly locked horns while prime minister, took almost 55 per cent of votes; she languished on less than 13 per cent.

Reminder of bad times

“She should have given up long ago, when she saw how she was received on Maidan,” said Irina, a Kiev native working at a fruit stall in the city centre.

“Times have changed. She reminds people of bad times, the Yanukovich days, and people want to forget them. We need a new start after Maidan, new faces and new ideas. It’s not her fault, perhaps, but she came back and things had moved on.”

Tymoshenko’s party has sought to tap into the country’s patriotic and martial fervour in its current campaign. It’s even gone so far to replace its leader at the top of its list of candidates, a move unthinkable in earlier election races, with Nadiya Savchenko, a Ukrainian military pilot jailed in Russia.

Having seen several top allies walk away and form a new party called People’s Front – which is set to beat Fatherland in the election – Tymoshenko has been forced to rebuild her political team and find new policies.

Like most mainstream politicians, Tymoshenko backs an anti-corruption drive and more help for the military and small business. But she also wants a referendum on joining Nato, which she calls the only bloc that can protect Ukraine from Russian aggression.

It may not be enough, however, to save her falling political star.