Cuba proposes one candidate to replace Raúl Castro

Cuba has proposed Miguel Díaz-Canel as the sole candidate to replace Raúl Castro as president, making him the first non-Castro to lead the socialist country since the 1959 revolution, in a sea change for the island.

Although the national assembly must still vote formally on Mr Díaz-Canel’s candidacy, such votes are often unanimously approved, in which case his official confirmation will be announced on Thursday – another symbolic moment, as it marks the 57th anniversary of the Bay of Pigs invasion, when US-backed exiles sought to oust Fidel Castro and his government.

Mr Díaz-Canel, who turns 58 on Friday, represents a new generation taking charge from the "historic generation" that led the struggle against the dictator Fulgencio Batista. Yet few expect big changes from the party stalwart and provincial party leader. Underlining that, the national assembly has asked Cubans to comment on the news and relay it via the hashtag #somoscontinuidad (we are continuity).

"Nobody expects big change. Nor do I. But who knows: maybe Díaz-Canel will surprise," said Frank Mora, a former US deputy assistant defence secretary and now professor of international relations at Florida International University.

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Although the assembly is expected to approve other younger leaders into government, Mr Castro and other revolutionary elders are likely to continue wielding considerable power as senior leaders of the Communist Party until a congress in 2021.

Mr Castro, who steps down as president after 10 years in the post, at the age of 86, is expected to remain head of the Communist Party and of the armed forces – the real source of economic power on the island.

In a country where personalities rather than institutions remain the true source of political patronage, Ramiro Valdés, an 85-year-old known as a hardliner, was also proposed for a senior post.

Mr Diaz-Canel is a party apparatchik, with a reputation for pragmatism and hard work, who has paid his dues by climbing slowly through the party ranks. From being first party secretary of Villa Clara province in 1994, to first secretary of Holguin province, he became a member of the senior politburo in 2003 and was nominated as vice-president in 2013.

Cubans have largely greeted the anticipated change with indifference. Relatively unknown in Havana, Mr Diaz-Canel has been projected in recent state coverage as a backslapping man of the people who understands their concerns. But he is no liberal: a recent leaked video showed him lashing out at dissidents, independent journalists and foreign embassies at a high-level Communist Party meeting.

"What a piece of theatre with 605 actors," remarked Rosa Maria Paya, the daughter of the leading former dissident Oswaldo Paya, who died in mysterious circumstances in 2012. "Just one candidate proposed," she tweeted.

Mr Diaz-Canel is expected to have to spend his first months as president consolidating his position. He then faces a daunting series of problems, including a stagnant economy, decaying infrastructure, hostile US administration and widespread Cuban disenchantment with a centrally planned system that cannot provide employees with a decent wage yet also discourages private initiative.

"I don't see relations with the US getting any better soon," said Pedro Freyre, of the US law firm Ackerman, which advises American companies on doing business with Cuba. "If anything I expect them to get worse." – © The Financial Times Ltd 2018