No fear of immediate reprisals over Damascus air strikes

There was no official confirmation from Jerusalem, but comments by Israeli politicians and generals yesterday left little doubt that Israel was behind the weekend air strikes on Syria.

Former military intelligence chief, reserve Maj Gen Amos Yadlin, told army radio Syria was a key element in Iran’s regional network.

“Iran is testing the firmness of Israel and the US regarding red lines. What Iran is seeing in Syria is that at least some of the players mean what they say when their red lines are crossed.”

His comments referred to the lack of response by the US to the growing evidence that the regime of Syrian president Bashar el-Assad has used chemical weapons in recent weeks, even though president Barack Obama declared that he would consider such a scenario a “game changer.”

Israel set its own red lines regarding Syria, stating it would act to prevent chemical weapons or advanced arms, such as long-range missiles, falling into the hands of Hizbullah or smaller militant groups.

Population under threat
Former defence minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer said he didn't know who was behind the attack, but Israel couldn't sit back quietly with its population threatened.

“I see what kind of weapons we are talking about,” he said. “It definitely changes the balance of power. Israel can’t sit in silence.”

Knesset member Shaul Mofaz, a former army chief of staff, said he supported Israel's policy of preventing weapons from reaching Hizbullah.

“One thing is clear: Syria is falling apart before our eyes. Iran and Hizbullah are deeply involved in the Syrian civil war, and the transfer of weapons may be the regime’s way of thanking Hizbullah for siding with it in its fight against rebel groups.”

Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu convened his security cabinet following the attack and delayed leaving for a trip to China by a few hours.

However, the very fact that he went ahead with the trip indicated that Israel believed there was a low probability of the Damascus attack developing into a wider regional conflagration.

The assessment among Israeli policy makers was clearly that Syria, Iran and Hizbullah don’t have an interest at this juncture in responding militarily.

Syria remains bogged down in its conflict with the rebels and could not possibly open a second front against Israel. The country’s inability to respond militarily partly explains the attempts by Damascus to play down the scope and significance of yesterday’s air strikes.

Iran, with a crucial election next month, is unlikely to respond to an attack on Syrian soil, preferring to maintain its capabilities to defend itself against the possibility of a strike by the US or Israel against its own nuclear programme.

Hizbullah, which portrays itself as a Lebanese resistance movement, is also reluctant to respond to an attack on Syrian soil , even though it has sent thousands of combatants to fight alongside Assad’s forces.

The Iranians also prefer to preserve Hizbullah's strength, and mainly its ability to fire rockets, for a scenario in which Iran's nuclear facilities come under attack.

Precautions
Israel did take some defensive precautions yesterday, deploying two Iron Dome anti-missile batteries to the north: one to Haifa and the second to the Galilee town of Safed. Israel's air space in the north was closed off to civilian planes until Thursday.

There was also a sharp rise in residents collecting gas masks from distribution points.

Despite the lack of any immediate response from Israel’s enemies, the weekend air strikes have definitely raised tension and there is no certainty that the summer of 2013 will end without a Middle East war.