Russia’s withdrawal from Syria shocks delegates at Geneva talks

Russian president Vladimir Putin's announcement that Russia will begin withdrawing the majority of its forces from Syria as Syrian peace talks began yesterday has shocked participants and could transform the balance of power between government and opposition forces. It is also likely to give a boost to al-Qaeda and Islamic State which have been targeted by Russian airstrikes over the past five and a half months.

UN mediator Staffan de Mistura said the talks are the sole viable option for Syria, the US and Russian sponsors, and international stakeholders. Failure would mean a "return to war worse than we had before."

At the conclusion of his procedural meeting with the Syrian government delegation, he said his objective would be to get "everyone on the same page". Mr de Mistura will be holding discussions with the Saudi-supported High Negotiations Committee (HNC) – who represent the opposition – on Tuesday.

“Substantive” talks will begin on Wednesday with Damascus and on Thursday with the HNC. These talks will focus on the formation of a transitional authority, drafting a constitution and running elections by August 2018, in line with UN Security Council resolution 2254.

Syrian government chief delegate Bashar al-Jaafari said the talks had begun constructively and looked forward to “substantive debate” and the creation of the “formal framework” required to achieve success. He urged participants to avoid the mistakes made during the January round which was suspended without mediated exchanges.

Negotiating table

In an effort to make the talks inclusive, on Sunday Mr de Mistura met the women’s advisory group, which has been preparing for dialogue since last week. However, this 12-member body will not be playing a principal role in the exchanges. Although Mr de Mistura has been mandated to involve a broad spectrum of opinion, Damascus does not want to face multiple groups across the negotiating table while the HNC claims to be the sole opposition representative.

The Syrian Kurdish-Arab coalition has, for a second time, not been invited to participate, despite the fact their fighters have been the most successful in the field against Islamic State. A source close to the coalition said they have been told not to come to Geneva. Russia strongly supports their participation while Turkey, long-embroiled in hostilities with Kurds within its own borders, has, so far, denied them an invitation.

Mr de Mistura dismissed uncompromising statements, made by both sides prior to the talks, as typical. Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem had said the government would not discuss the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad while HNC chief Mohamed Alloush said Mr Assad had to be removed, “alive or dead”.

‘Spoilers’

Mr de Mistura also warned about “spoilers” who, he said, are eager to see the talks fail. There is no shortage of such spoilers in the theatre. They include groups such as Islamic State, also known as Isis, and al-Qaeda’s Jabhat al-Nusra which have prospered due to the conflict and have no desire to see it end. Al-Nusra is systematically eliminating “moderate” groups which have been armed and trained by the US and supported by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. For their part, Islamic State has been trying to cut government supply lines from Damascus to Aleppo, in an effort to force retaliation and disrupt the truce.

While the ceasefire has held far better than expected, it is also threatened from within HNC-affiliated armed groups since some members support and others oppose talks. Furthermore, there is a considerable difference in outlook and agenda between fundamentalist armed factions and secular members of the political opposition.

In addition, Mr de Mistura called on the international community to take notice of the report No Place for Children, issued on Monday by the UN children's organisation Unicef, which revealed that 3.7 million Syrian children, one in three of all Syrian children, have been born during the five-year conflict. Unicef estimates that 8.4 million children, 80 per cent of the country's children, have been affected by the war. Last year there were 1,500 brutal attacks on children, 60 per cent of which involved killing and maiming.