Syrian talks deadlocked over demands for Assad to go

At the end of the first week of Syrian talks, Damascus and the main Syrian opposition coalition remain trapped in positions which will have to be abandoned if there is to be a political solution to the five-year conflict.

The government refuses to accept the departure of President Bashar al-Assad, while the Saudi-sponsored High Negotiations Committee (HNC) demands his early dismissal.

This impasse has bedevilled peacemakers since the adoption in June 2012 of the plan for the creation of a transitional authority with executive powers, a new constitution, and elections.

UN mediator Staffan de Mistura and the sponsors of the Syrian talks have been tasked with finding a formula both sides can accept. The process will continue next week and be renewed next month.

The Syrian government maintains Assad is the legitimate head of the regime, which has ruled the country for 46 years. The HNC fears it could lose whatever support it has with its sponsors, anti-regime activists and paramilitary forces if he remains in office.

HNC spokesman Salim al-Muslet told The Irish Times, "Assad must leave right away. We must have a new leadership. Our people will not accept if Assad stays. We want him to go to the International Criminal Court [along with] anyone who commits crimes."

Once he is deposed “the army and intelligence services” would need restructuring but the Baath Party would not be outlawed. “We are not against any party but only those individuals involved in killing,” he said.

Al-Muslet said the HNC seeks to establish a “civil [secular] , democratic state [where] all communities take part in decision-making and share power”.

He said fundamentalist groups had signed the Riyadh Declaration which provides for the "rule of civil law" rather than Muslim Sharia law.

Asked about connections between HNC-affiliated military factions which have connections with al-Qaeda’s Jabhat al-Nusra group, he said these had been terminated. However, this is disputed.

Designated the "main" opposition interlocutor, the HNC is a coalition of disparate political factions, including secular groups, the Muslim Brotherhood, individuals and 30 armed factions.

The HNC has been granted this status because it has the patronage of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the US, and Europe, rather than popular Syrian support.

Internal divisions extend to the HNC's presence in Geneva. When Damascus's ally, Russia, announced the withdrawal of combat aircraft and troops that have strengthened the government over the past five months, HNC militants wanted to return to the battlefield, a source close to the committee revealed. A decision he said would be disastrous for the HNC.

HNC factions, members, and patrons are also divided. While the HNC continues to follow the Riyadh-Ankara Assad must go line, the US and some European supporters have suggested he could stay until the transition is complete, the constitution redrafted and elections held, al though he could not stand.

The moderate Moscow-Cairo group challenges the HNC in the negotiations.

The Moscow component is headed by former deputy prime minister Qadri Jamil, a communist who lives in Damascus and who is seen as Moscow's man. He says Assad's fate should be determined by democratic elections in line with Russia's demand that Syrians, rather than external powers, should decide who should rule Syria.

The Cairo component is represented by a former Syrian foreign ministry spokesman, who defected from the regime, Dubai resident Jihad Makdissi, who stated, "Moscow and Cairo are one table with two heads".

Cairo wants a democratic solution and "a serious, non-cosmetic transformation. A cosmetic solution would create another uprising", he told The Irish Times.

“We want to build a new Syrian system on better foundations. [However], it is not logical for Assad to leave before the transition is completed. Our problem is not a problem of one person but of a system. We must rebuild the political system jointly with the loyalist camp.”

Analysts suggest the deadlocked sides might find common ground in the Moscow-Cairo approach.

For many Syrians, De Mistura, and the US and Russian sponsors of the Syrian talks, removing Assad could create a major problem as there is no charismatic and commanding individual who could take his place.