Sanctions will be most likely EU response

Yesterday’s meeting of European Union foreign ministers was always bound to disappoint those favouring a tough approach to Russia’s incursion into Crimea. For hawkish foreign policy analysts, the EU has been consistently weak in its response to foreign policy issues on its doorstep, dating back to its response to the violent break-up of Yugoslavia in the 1990s.

With events changing rapidly yesterday, the decision to hold an EU summit on Thursday effectively bought more time for the EU, and avoided aggravating a fragile diplomatic situation.

Disparate stances
One of the EU's biggest challenges throughout the crisis has been consolidating a common position, with member states such as Sweden, Lithuania and Poland favouring a robust approach to Russia as against the more diplomatic tactics of others. There was some consensus going into the meeting, however.

Almost all member states, including Britain and Germany, ruled out any military intervention, a position that appeared to be shared by the US and Nato. Instead, sanctions were the main focus.

At issue was a single sentence in the draft conclusions of the meeting, with EU foreign ministers debating whether they should “consider” or “begin preparations” for sanctions against Russia. Semantics matter in policymaking. The foreign ministers opted to pass the decision to prime ministerial level, when it will be discussed at Thursday’s meeting, effectively imposing a deadline on Russia.

Complexity of sanctions
The option of sanctions is fraught with difficulties. The immediate concerns range from the difficulty in deciding who should be subject to the measures (should Putin himself be included for example?) to frustration that the legal process for implementing sanctions could take too long to have real impact.

But the real question is whether member states are prepared to tamper with the EU’s economic relationship with Russia. Russia is its third-biggest trading partner, with the EU selling €123 billion worth of exports to it in 2012. The EU is Russia’s number-one export market.

Energy dominates the economic relationship. About one-third of European gas comes from Russia, almost half through pipes running through Ukraine. Yesterday's threat by Russian state-owned firm Gazprom to up the prices it charges Ukraine for gas is a hint at the measures Russia is prepared to take.

But despite Russia’s role as the dominant supplier to the region, the economic relationship is one of mutual dependency with Russia as reliant on the European market as the EU is on Russia for its gas. Neither side will want to jeopardise the relationship.

Germany’s position is crucial. Geographically and economically, it is closer to Russia than many member states, with up to 40 per cent of its gas and 35 per cent of its oil coming from Russia.

The decision to convene an emergency summit on Thursday may buy more time, but it will also increase the pressure for a robust, cohesive response.