Conservatives can hide from customs union debate, but can they run?

It is acknowledged on all sides as the crunch question surrounding Brexit right now, but when MPs held a debate about the customs union on Thursday, most of them didn't show up. The government benches were almost deserted, with empty rows of green leather where the loudest Conservative Brexiteers usually sit, and junior treasury minister Mel Stride manning the front bench.

None of the DUP’s 10 MPs were present, leaving North Down’s Sylvia Hermon to represent Northern Ireland – and unionism – alone. Antrim-born Kate Hoey, a Labour Brexiteer, referred to her absent friends as she spoke in favour of leaving the customs union.

“I feel a little alone today,” she said.

Jacob Rees-Mogg said this week that it would be political suicide for a Conservative government to agree to remain in a customs union

Instead of risking defeat on a non-binding motion, government whips told their MPs to abstain on the vote and to feel free to take the afternoon off. It’s a technique they have used a number of times in response to opposition motions since Theresa May lost her parliamentary majority last year, and it annoys the Speaker but saves the government’s blushes.

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Alarmed

On its own, Thursday’s vote changed nothing, but the debate will have alarmed the whips as they watched hitherto shy Tory rebels speak up in favour of the customs union. Ten Conservatives have already put their names to a pro-customs union amendment to a Bill next month, and Thursday’s debate suggested that more could join them – possibly enough to ensure the government’s defeat.

May reassured Eurosceptic backbenchers this week that she remains committed to leaving the customs union, a red line she laid down in her first Conservative conference speech as leader in October 2016. She repeated the pledge in her Lancaster House speech in January 2017 and it has survived each major iteration of her government’s Brexit policy. The backbenchers said they were reassured by the prime minister’s latest renewal of the vow, and Jacob Rees-Mogg said this week that it would be political suicide for a Conservative government to agree to remain in a customs union.

May’s problem is that she has promised to keep trade as frictionless as possible, partly because of the impact on British industry of any friction in the EU-wide supply chains used by big manufacturers. She has also promised to avoid a hard border in Ireland and ruled out any new trade barrier between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

Contemptuous

The EU has rejected both of May’s customs proposals, and many in her own government are contemptuous of the option she is believed to favour – a customs partnership that would mean Britain collecting tariffs on behalf of the EU on imports destined for the European market.

The second option, a customs arrangement now known as maximum facilitation or “maxfac”, would use technology and trusted trader schemes to make customs controls less intrusive and time-consuming.

Brexiteers are suspicious of the customs partnership, which they fear could be adapted into a customs union in all but name. Under one scenario, Britain could agree to adopt a common external tariff with the EU for manufactured goods only. Services, which account for 80 per cent of the British economy, are not covered by the customs union, but new potential trade partners would probably want access to the British market for their agricultural exports.

If May loses a confidence vote in Parliament, Jeremy Corbyn would have a chance to try to form a government before an election is called

The island of Ireland is already treated as a single territory for phytosanitary standards, and passengers flying into Belfast from London often remark on agricultural hygiene notices at the airport. The DUP insists that Northern Ireland must not be treated differently from the rest of the UK in matters of trade after Brexit.

Status quo

But could they be persuaded to accept an arrangement that is close to the status quo on agriculture? And if not, how plausible is their threat to topple the Conservative government?

Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, it is difficult to trigger a general election if the government doesn’t want one – and it is safe to assume that May is in no rush to reacquaint herself with the electorate. If May loses a confidence vote in Parliament, Jeremy Corbyn would have a chance to try to form a government before an election is called.

Next week’s local elections could be almost as important as events in Parliament in determining the behaviour of Conservative MPs over Brexit. If Labour has its biggest victory in London for almost half a century, as polls predict, Conservative backbenchers may find unpalatable compromises on Brexit a little easier to swallow.