North Carolina goes down to the wire after rush of early voters

The roads leading to the polling station at the New Hanover County board of elections are lined with campaign signs, but there is not one visible for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

"We keep putting them up; they keep ripping them down. They do it after we leave," says Suzanne Werner, second vice-chair of the county's Democratic Party.

She points to the torn remains of the Clinton posters that are still tied to her canvas shelter across from a line of people queueing to vote early.

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Derek Bowens, elections director, New Hanover County board of elections, outside an early-voting centre in Wilmington, North Carolina on Saturday. Photograph: Simon Carswell

“That is what we get from Republicans, to the point where we don’t even put out yard signs. We always hear complaints: ‘Why aren’t there Hillary signs?’ That is one of the reasons.”

Werner points to a handwritten sign on the Republican tent right next to her. It says Clinton should be in jail, not the White House. "That's just the kind of nonsense that we deal with," she says.

There is a quiet but noticeable tension here in Wilmington on coastal southeastern North Carolina on Saturday during the final three hours of a 17-day period of early voting before election day on Tuesday, November 8th. More people than is normal decline to say how they voted and those who talk do so quietly.

“I voted for Hillary Clinton. I don’t like people to hear who I voted for,” whispers Teresa Toney (47), laughing shyly, as she moves away from the queue behind her.

North Carolina state board of election data shows that early voting turnout among African-American voters across North Carolina was down 8 per cent on 2012 when Barack Obama won the state. Toney, who is black, thinks people are fed up with this campaign's angry rhetoric.

“People are just turned off, by the commercials, all the attacks,” she says. “I had a co-worker. Her grandmother is in her 90s and her grandmother said, ‘I am not voting – I am just ticked off’.”

Disliked candidates

Even Republicans reluctantly voting for Republican nominee Donald Trump agree that the poor choice between two disliked candidates has turned off many people.

“You can’t polish a turd,” says Tim (34), a salesman from Wilmington, North Carolina, as he queues to vote for Trump. (He does not want to give his last name.) “Both of them are turds and you’ve got to pick the one who stinks less.”

North Carolina, which swung for Republican Mitt Romney four years ago, is a must-win state for Trump. The loss of the state's 15 electoral votes would roll a boulder in his path to the White House.

Before Trump’s plane landed for his rally in Wilmington on Saturday, North Carolina’s Republican governor Pat McCrory addresses the reluctance of people to speak out about how they are voting.

“It’s time for the silent majority to quit whispering about their support,” he says.

After descending from his plane with his wife Melania, Trump declared with typical swagger: “In three days, we are going to win the great state of North Carolina. Then, we will win the White House.”

Lack of enthusiasm

On the other side, the lack of enthusiasm among black voters for Clinton's candidacy has brought desperate measures in the Democrat's final week of campaigning. President Barack Obama stumped for his former secretary of state at three rallies in the state over three days last week. Clinton and running mate Tim Kaine will make separate last-minute stops in the state on Monday, as will Trump.

North Carolina, one of a dozen battleground states, is the purple state with the highest percentage of black voters, explaining Obama’s barnstorming here and his exhortation to voters on Wednesday.

"We won't win this election, potentially, if we don't win North Carolina," Obama said in Chapel Hill. "So I hate to put a little pressure on you, but the fate of the republic rests on your shoulders."

For black voters, there just is not the same historical significance this year.

“People are just kind of ‘meh’,” says Wayne (48), who also did not want to give his last name as he leaves after voting for Clinton. “They are just taking the view that it is not that important, not like before to elect the first black president.”

There is still plenty to play for here. The RealClearPolitics average of polls showed Trump taking a lead of less than a point in the state late last week. The race comes down to which candidate can mobilise their base the best.

“If North Carolina voters get out and vote, Hillary will get it,” says Tiffany Clay-Brunson (41), an African-American medical assistant, after voting for Clinton. “A lot of North Carolina like Trump but they don’t like his values so there are a lot of Republicans that will vote Democratic.”

Intense election

Almost three million North Carolinians cast ballots in early voting this year out of more than 30 million across 38 states that permit it. North Carolina’s early-voting total was up 13 per cent on 2012.

Democrats voted early in the same numbers as in 2012 and they account for a bigger share. Republican early voting was up 13.8 per cent, which is good for Trump. The number of registered unaffiliated voters increased by 43.4 per cent. It is hard to say which candidate will benefit from this.

There was a 75 per cent increase in Latinos voting early this year, although they account for a tiny number of early votes cast, according to Catalist, a data firm that profiles early voters. Still, in a state that Obama won by just 14,000 votes in 2008, these votes could count.

In New Hanover County, where Romney won by four points in 2012, there was a late surge in Republican early-voters this weekend to tie Democrat numbers, setting a new record for early voting.

"It is an intense election," said Derek Bowens, the county's elections director, taking a break from shepherding people to the voting booths to speak with The Irish Times. "The trajectory of the country and where we are going has got people so engaged, including a lot of new voters."

Margin of error

Herb Harton (69), a Democratic activist, saw the numbers of early voters for himself. He has sat out in the car park of the board of elections at Wilmington’s government centre from 9am-5pm every day since he voted himself on the first day of early voting on October 20th.

A TV and film cinematographer who worked on shows such as Dawson's Creek and One Tree Hill and films such as Interview with te Vampire and Days of Thunder even brought his banjo along to rally support for Clinton with his songs including one he wrote called Turn Carolina Blue.

“Don’t worry about the weather/Just pull that Democratic voting lever/Let’s turn Carolina blue,” he sings, between bashing the local Republican government for gutting the state’s film industry with the removal of incentives and for threatening inward investment with the “HB2” transgender bathroom Bill.

“We are confident that we are polling up but things are now within the margin of error. There could be some anomaly, which would be devastating to us because we worked so hard,” he said.

“I can’t really fathom someone as unqualified as Donald Trump could be president. I don’t know how anybody could support him. Obviously there are a lot of people who have drunk the Kool-Aid.”