‘People are fickle’: The US county that historically votes for winning candidate

In a year in which the term "bellwether" is sure to become a popular refrain in US political terminology, Vigo county in the state of Indiana is truly that.

In all but two US presidential elections since 1888, the residents of this county on the Illinois border have voted for the winning candidate.

Not only did Vigo county voters back Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before switching to Donald Trump in 2016 (Trump won 56 per cent of the vote versus Hillary Clinton's 40 per cent), every candidate who has prevailed here since 1952 – 16 elections in succession – has gone on to take the White House.

Only one other county in the US boasts such a remarkable record – Valencia county, New Mexico.

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Trump's going to take Indiana, big time. Bernie Sanders? He's a nationalist socialist. That's what the Nazis were

What makes this Midwestern area such a dab hand at predicting who wins the presidency?

"I think people vote how they feel," says Tammy Boland, a Democratic councilwoman-at-large in Terre Haute, the county capital. "People don't vote Democrat because the candidate's Democrat, or Republican because the candidate's Republican.

“They want somebody who is transparent with them, who makes them feel like they’re part of the process.”

Strong sides

The city of Terre Haute makes up about half of Vigo county's 108,000 residents. Pulling off Interstate 70, which stretches thousands of kilometres across America from Maryland to Nevada, you encounter the fast food restaurants that dominate Terre Haute's low-rise cityscape before arriving at a downtown core of dated, early 20th century architecture and a set of train tracks come into view.

Here, at the Wabash Cigar Store and Hobby Shop, Andy Kluebar says he voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but turned to Trump in 2016. “Hillary was really unpopular. I didn’t want to vote for her because she’s been a head cheerleader for getting us into wars. I didn’t want to vote for that,” he says.

“Why is Vigo county [so accurate]? Who can say?,” he adds, lighting up a cigar.

Both sides of the political divide have been strong in Vigo county for decades. Terre Haute's mayor Duke Bennett is a Republican and has held the post since 2008. Last November, he won a fourth term to become the longest sitting mayor in the city's history.

Before him, however, Democrats had held the role since 1971. What’s more, all six members of Terre Haute’s city council are Democrats while local politicians have run both as Democrats and Republicans in past elections.

There are three large colleges in Vigo county, including Indiana State University just north of downtown, which account for a combined student and faculty population of 17,500 people, many of whom are thought to make up a significant portion of the local Democratic vote.

It's going to be like Corbyn in Britain. For the Democrats, it's all identity politics and pie-in-the-sky dreamer stuff

"We have a lot of universities, so we don't necessarily have that brain drain," says Jon Robeson, executive director of Arts Illiana, a non-profit and gallery situated in a former hotel in downtown Terre Haute.

“If you look at the overall population of the county it really makes up what the country looks like in a microcosm, in terms of demographics, population, income,” says Robeson. But with regard to how the county went for Obama twice before switching to Trump, “that defies logic to me”, he says.

Democratic frontrunner Bernie Sanders beat Clinton in the 2016 primary both in Vigo county and Indiana as a whole, and he remains popular. Robeson says he has a Pete Buttigieg sticker on the back of his car, though the former Democratic presidential candidate and mayor of South Bend, Indiana, dropped out of the race on Sunday night. For the most part, says Robeson, local Democrats are "all over the place" when it comes to choosing a candidate to take on Trump.

At the same time, however, Indiana is also home territory for vice-president and Trump running mate Mike Pence. Last year, Pence's nephew and Trump staffer John Pence made a much-publicised visit to Vigo county.

Urban and rural

In a bar in Seelyville, a village dominated by mobile homes 12km outside Terre Haute, former postman Daniel Kruzan says he queued for 30 minutes to see Donald Trump at the Indiana Theatre when he campaigned in Terre Haute in May 2016.

“We didn’t like Hillary. Guess what? Hillary didn’t come to Vigo county. Obama came. Trump came, and they had to turn away probably 5,000-6,000 people [who wanted to see him] right”.

“Trump’s going to take Indiana, big time. Bernie Sanders? He’s a nationalist socialist. That’s what the Nazis were,” he says. Sanders describes himself as a Democratic Socialist, a very different political strand.

Still, there are multiple factors at play this year that make it difficult to predict either whom Vigo county residents will choose as their Democratic presidential candidate in the May 5th Indiana primary, or as president come November.

The county is a mix of urban and rural communities split almost 50/50. Its jobs growth rate is lower and unemployment rate higher than the national average. Last month, student enrolment in Vigo county fell below 14,000 for the first time, sending shudders throughout a community facing long-term population decline, not least because fewer students means less funding for local schools.

The building of a new police station has been a divisive issue as it’s taxpayers’ dollars that are expected to foot the bill. And for fans of the arts, the Trump administration has threatened to eliminate the National Endowment for the Arts, an independent agency of the federal government which partly funds Arts Illiana.

Still, Klueber of the Wabash Cigar Store says the local economy has picked up in recent years, and that he intends to vote for Trump again in November. “It looks like it’s going to be Bernie this time and the Democrats are going to go down like a weight,” he says. “It’s going to be like Corbyn in Britain. For the Democrats, it’s all identity politics and pie-in-the-sky dreamer stuff.”

Democrats in Terre Haute are still unsure who’ll be left standing to face Trump. On Tuesday, 14 state primaries accounting for one-third of Democratic delegates nationwide are up for grabs. Thereafter, the picture is expected to become quite a bit clearer.

“There’s a long way to go,” says Jon Robeson, “and people are fickle.”