US election debate analysis: Republicans focus on damage control

Donald Trump channelled the worst mob impulses of his rally audiences, riffing on their “Lock Her Up!” chants by telling Hillary Clinton in their second TV debate that she would “be in jail” if he was in charge.

The Republican presidential nominee’s remark at Sunday night’s debate was dismissed as “a quip” by his campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, on Monday morning. But coming shortly after the billionaire property developer promised in his televised encounter with Clinton to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the Democratic candidate if elected, the threat to jail her seemed real and sinister.

The comment, for many, was another Trumpian moment disqualifying him from the presidency. For his supporters, though, it was exactly what they wanted to hear; while, for neutrals, the moment characterised the conduct of a candidate with nothing to lose after a weekend when his presidential bid appeared close to collapse.

Trump entered the debate on Sunday with his campaign in meltdown and his party in open revolt over his tape-recorded boasts 11 years ago that he was able to sexually assault women because he was “a star.”

He left the debate stage with the core base of his support shored up, if not on substance, then on the sheer force of his brutal attacks. He did little to salvage his standing with establishment Republicans, many of whom had denounced him and even called on him to step aside as nominee in the 48 hours after the leaked tape surfaced.

On Monday, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Paul Ryan, the highest-ranking elected Republican, dumped Trump. He told House Republicans on a post-debate conference call that he would no longer defend or campaign for the party’s candidate, thereby all but withdrawing his endorsement of Trump.

Republican majority

He instructed Republicans to do whatever they deemed best to ensure their own re-election. Ryan’s spokeswoman said that the Wisconsin politician will spend the remainder of the 28-day campaign focused entirely on protecting the Republican majority in the US congress, illustrating what Trump’s self-immolation has put at stake for the party. Control of the US Senate rests on a knife-edge in the run-up to the November 8th elections.

Trump’s behaviour in the debate confirmed that the party has little chance of muzzling their nominee. During the 90-minute debate, the reality-TV star slipped his leash, barked loudly and sank his teeth into Clinton.

He called her “the devil” and said she had “tremendous hate in her heart”. He then resurrected accusations that Bill Clinton sexually harassed and assaulted women, allegations denied for years by the former president.

Trump even brought along three of Clinton's accusers: Paula Jones, Juanita Broaddrick and Kathleen Wiley. Rudy Giuliani, the former New York City mayor and senior Trump cheerleader, told the Washington Post that the billionaire's team even wanted to sit the women in Trump's VIP box to force an embarrassing on-air confrontation with Bill Clinton in front of a national audience – but the organisers of the debate refused.

In the debate – as in his pre-debate scheming – Trump was at his most base and feckless. He was in full supermarket-tabloid mode. This was far from the contrite nominee that some felt he needed to be to regain the footing following the bombshell tape. It was the hardcore, bombastic candidate that his supporters love.

From another qualified apology about his distressing predatory brags about women in 2005 – brushing it off as “locker-room talk” – Trump pivoted to the threat posed by Islamic State. His attempts to suggest that the militant group’s actions were more serious than his demeaning words about women sounded like a bizarre non-sequitur.

Trump tape

When the topic of the Trump tape was raised again, he denied (at the third time of being asked) that he ever committed the acts he boasted about. He then turned to another target: Bill Clinton.

“There’s never been anybody in the history of politics in this nation that’s been so abusive to women,” he said of the 42nd president.

Clinton did not address the Republican’s remarks about her husband but instead hid behind Michelle Obama’s comment that “when they go low, you go high”. There was no doubt about it: Trump went low on Sunday night, very low.

Still, Trump could claim to have taken something from this debate by appeasing his base, leaving the neutral to chalk it down a draw on points.

But Clinton won the weekend. She had a strong advantage heading into the debate. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll gave her a whopping 11-point lead over Trump after the vulgar tape but before the debate, and he needed to do much more on Sunday night to regain that kind of ground.

Ryan’s response showed the damage Trump has caused. Not only is defeat in the presidential election now a very real prospect, but so too is loss of the party’s control of congress.