US election race tightens over Clinton’s email troubles

How quickly political views change. In July, FBI director James Comey was hailed by Democrats. He had recommended that no criminal charges be filed against presidential nominee Hillary Clinton over her handling of classified information on a private email as secretary of state after a year-long investigation.

Clinton said she was "grateful for the professionalism of the FBI and the department of justice". Democratic House of Representatives minority leader Nancy Pelosi called him "a great man", while Senate minority leader Harry Reid said: "No one can question him."

Democrats changed their tune after Comey told congressional Republicans in a letter on Friday that the FBI had found new emails in an unrelated case – the investigation into allegations that former congressman Anthony Weiner, the now-estranged husband of Clinton aide Huma Abedin, had "sexted" an underage girl – that they appeared to be "pertinent" to the Clinton email investigation.

In a sharply worded letter, Reid told Comey that he may have violated a law, the Hatch Act, barring FBI officials from using their official authority to influence an election, describing his letter as a “partisan action”. Clinton described Comey’s letter as “pretty strange”, “unprecedented” and “deeply troubling”.

The reheating of the Clinton email scandal has raised the temperature in the last eight days of the presidential campaign and undermined her campaign’s efforts to make the final stretch to election day about Donald Trump and his fitness to lead. In an election with two disliked presidential candidates (Trump more than Clinton), it is about keeping your opponent’s flaws and weaknesses in the spotlight, not yours.

Comey’s letter and the renewed investigation, which will likely continue beyond the November 8th ballot given the reported 650,000 emails on Weiner’s computer to be sifted through, remind voters of the concerns that make them uneasy about Clinton throughout this campaign: honesty and trustworthiness.

Before Comey’s letter, polls had already been narrowing from the post-debates surge Clinton had enjoyed, heaping further pressure on her camp. It explains the blistering offensive they launched against the FBI director, trying to make his own judgment as much as of the story as the revived email review.

“The Democrats are panicked. That is why they are attacking James Comey whom they loved a few weeks ago,” said John Feehery, a former senior Republican congressional aide who sees the controversy hurting Clinton most among independents and young voters who will be turned off voting.

Polls show a tightening of the race, even as more than 22 million people have voted early or cast an absentee ballot. Real Clear Politics shows Clinton’s lead over Trump in an average of national polls down just under three points, making this a much closer race, in the territory of George W Bush’s winning margin over John Kerry in the 2004 election.

An ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll gave Clinton just a one-point advantage nationally, down from as much as 12 points 10 days ago, and showed a four-point decline in enthusiasm for the Democrat among likely voters over the two days of polling that covered the reaction to Comey's letter. The poll found that more than six in 10 said that the FBI review would make no difference on their vote, while a little over three in 10 said that it would make them less likely to to support Clinton, although a majority of those were Republican leaning.

“I think it has hurt Hillary but not enough to lose the election,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon.

Commentators, in seeking a benchmark to assess the possible damage to Clinton, have cited the story about George W Bush being arrested for drunk-driving in 1976 that broke four days before the 2000 election, which is estimated to have cost him three points nationally and, according to own strategist Karl Rove, five states.

The Clinton email scandal is different in that it is a reprisal of a known controversy. “I don’t think it is really going to change many hearts and minds because it is part of the existing narrative: if the emails bothered you before, this is going to bother you and if it didn’t, it won’t bother you now,” said Democratic consultant Stefan Hankin with Washington DC firm Lincoln Park Strategies.

“Where you will see some effect is that Republicans who were not going to vote for Trump might be dissuaded from turning out or leaving their ballot blank on the presidential vote if this is the last straw for them, but a Republican not voting for Trump is almost as good for Clinton.”