Yes campaign on course for victory in referendum

The Yes campaign is on course for victory in European stability treaty referendum on May 31st, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, but the outcome is still in the hands of undecided voters.

Asked how they were likely to vote on the treaty, 39 per cent of voters said Yes, 30 per cent said No and 31 per cent either didn't know or won't vote.

When undecided voters are excluded support for the Yes side stands at 57 per cent with No support at 43 per cent.

Support for the Yes side has increased by nine points since the last Irish Times poll five weeks ago while support for the No has gone up by seven points.

The number of undecided voters has come down by 17 points since the last poll.

The poll was taken between lunchtime on Wednesday and lunchtime yesterday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.

Apart from reducing the number of undecided voters the strong campaigns being waged by the Yes and No sides has resulted in stalemate with no significant shift in support since the campaign began.

After the exclusion of undecided voters the Yes side is down one point and the No side up one point compared to five weeks ago.

However, it would take a dramatic shift to the No side in the final days of the campaign for the treaty to be defeated.

At a similar stage in the second referendum on the Lisbon treaty in September, 2009, the Irish Times poll produced a similar result with 59 per cent Yes and 41 per cent No after the exclusion of undecided voters. .

In the event the treaty was carried by 67 per cent to 33 per cent.

Still the Government will be worried that the number of undecided voters remains stubbornly high and is capable of changing the final outcome.

On the positive side for the Government there has been a big change in public opinion since last October when the fiscal treaty was still being negotiated. At that stage just 37 per cent said they would vote Yes to the treaty while 63 per cent said No.

The details of today's poll show that the Yes campaign continues to have strong backing from middle-class voters while working-class voters remain opposed to the treaty.

One big change in the course of the campaign is that the significant gender difference, between men and women has been eliminated with both now equally supportive of the treaty.

In party terms Fine Gael voters are easily strongest the supporters of the treaty with 74 per cent Yes and just 8 per cent No. Labour voters are not as strongly committed with 46 per cent Yes and 29 per cent No. Fianna Fáil voters are more strongly in favour of the treaty by 50 per cent to 23 per cent.

Sinn Féin supporters are the strongest opponents of the treaty with 66 per cent No to 13 per cent while supporters of Independents and smaller parties are also against the treaty by 41 per cent to 34 per cent.