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I was lucky enough to spend last summer in America. My travels brought me to Brooklyn in southern Michigan, for a country music festival. Brooklyn describes itself as a cosy town snuggled between three lakes in the Heart of the Irish Hills, which in turn take their name from the immigrants who arrived in the 1840s and 1850s. Its main claim to fame seemed to be its proximity to Michigan International Speedway, which is the is the fastest track in Nascar.
Naturally, the festival was filled with Nascar-loving, truck-driving, beer-drinking good ol’ country boys and their families.
On my first night it poured rain and I had to set up a tent in the dark. People came from all around my campsite to offer a roof from the rain, a torch, beer and even a bed for the night. Needless to say, I was shocked the next morning to emerge to find that these same people had MAGA flagsflying on their tents and proudly wore “f*ck Joe Biden” T-shirts. It was literally a rude awakening. But their hospitality continued. Many of my fellow festival goers were some of the most open-minded, hospitable people I have ever come across.
All too often, we engage in what I call “political assumption”. It is when you assume everything about someone based on their politics. I see it a lot when it comes to Sinn Féin. If we were to engage in political assumption, we could conclude that anyone who voted for Sinn Féin supports the IRA, wants a united Ireland, and hates the Brits.
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What Sinn Féin can learn from Trump’s loss in popularity is this: people are not as fickle as we think. They support and stay loyal to politicians who they feel best represent their views
Many Trump supporters I came across in Michigan simply liked Trump for his policies. As steel workers, mechanics and farmers, they felt his tax cuts had made their lives easier. They didn’t like him much as a person – but they appreciated what they perceived his administration had done for them. The same can be said for Sinn Féin voters. What draws many people to the party is not its affiliation with the IRA or their desire to unite Ireland. It is the party’s radical economic policies and its emphasis on resolving the housing crisis.
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Political assumption is a dangerous thing. It shrinks one’s worldview and closes minds to different perspectives. How is anyone to grow if they cannot learn? It is easy, as Irish people, to dislike Trump. We don’t have to live with his policies, good or bad, or choose between them and alternatives. We don’t know the lived experience of the everyday American. Many of them are willing to overlook Trump’s flaws in favour of his policies.
The same is often true of Sinn Féin voters – voters are willing to put aside the party’s historical association with extreme political violence to focus on what they offer now. If Trump supporters can hold two contradictory ideas in their head at the same time, why are we surprised when Irish voters do it, too?
Trump’s popularity with the Republican Party grassroots seems to be on the wane. The midterm elections showed that. Republican Ron DeSantis romped home to victory in the Florida gubernatorial race despite Trump endorsing another candidate. He is now the leading challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination for president in 2024.
Whining
Political commentator Ben Shapiro, a Trump voter in 2020, explains Trump’s decline in popularity thus: his focus is no longer on the policies that won him the support of a wide coalition of disaffected blue-collar voters and conservation Christians. Where once Trump appealed to the everyday American, he seems now to be running on the claim that the 2020 election was stolen.
Trump is hurt that Biden beat him, and is whining about it in almost every campaign speech. It is not exactly a problem that resonates with the average voter. And it is hurting his chances of being selected to run for president, never mind elected. He no longer represents what he once claimed to represent, whereas many feel that DeSantis does.
Trump voters were once willing to disregard his flaws because they supported what he stood for. Many Sinn Féin voters find themselves in the same boat.
What Sinn Féin can learn from Trump’s loss in popularity is this: people are not as fickle as we think. They support and stay loyal to politicians who they feel best represent their views. Trump doesn’t do this any more, so DeSantis popularity is on the rise with some polls showing him pulling ahead.
Sinn Féin should take note. They must remember what it is that makes the party popular. While many of its voters – in particular members of generation Z such as myself – will look beyond their association with past actions of the IRA, it is only because of Sinn Féin’s present-day policies in areas such as housing and not the relentless focus on a united Ireland.
None of this to say that Trump is the same as Sinn Féin. It is to say that voters overlook flaws in their politicians for good reasons – and when those reasons are gone, so are their votes.
Minnie Mooney is a journalist.