Paul Gillespie: Scottish independence is at a crossroads

Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation raises strategic questions for the Scottish National Party. Primarily, how can it achieve its goal of independence without her leadership given the state of Scottish public opinion and the likely future of British politics?

Her dignified departing statement referenced pressing issues she had previously been well able to handle and an over-polarised and irrational public debate. There is no denying these issues were accumulating into a formidable cluster of Scottish domestic political problems on top of the UK constitutional dilemmas she faced.

Her judgment and political capacity were questioned on the gender recognition bill she championed, along with her handling of education cuts, health and ferry services. Her decision to make the next UK general election result a proxy constitutional referendum, after the UK Supreme Court rejected her right to call one, might backfire if it fails to produce a majority. She is evaluated more as an outstandingly articulate campaigner than as a leader delivering on policies.

She and her party have been in power for 16 years with responsibility for large areas of devolved government – more than most other contemporary federal arrangements . That makes combining governing tasks with constitutional transformation all the more difficult. It helps that the SNP follows the social democratic vein of Scottish politics, allowing it to replace the Labour Party there and at Westminster. It was simultaneously against the grain of the overwhelmingly English Conservative UK rule since 2010.

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The SNP has 64 members of the Scottish parliament (elected in 2021 on its additional member system) compared to 31 Conservatives, 22 Labour, seven Greens, four Liberal Democrats and one independent. The SNP governs Scotland in coalition with the Greens, who also support independence. At Westminster the Scottish party balance is 44 SNP, six Conservatives, four Liberal Democrats, two Alba, one Labour and two others.

The SNP’s dominance in Westminster is skewed by the first-past-the-post electoral system. This makes using the next UK election as a proxy referendum problematic since the result would depend on the overall numbers of votes not seats won. The contrast neatly reflects the UK’s skewed political system – reformed in the devolved peripheries and not at the centre .

Surveys show average support for independence hovering over and below 50 per cent, up from the 2014 referendum result of 45 to 55 against, but not decisively so. Recent deeper survey research by David McCrone and Michael Keating found 40 per cent of Scots were sovereigntists who supported independence as promoted by the SNP and around 15 per cent were unionist and opposed to independence. Another 16 per cent were semi-sovereigntists in favour of Scottish self-government but ceded legitimacy to the UK on the Brexit issue.

[ The Irish Times view on the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon ]

There are interesting crossovers. Many sovereigntists would accept a shared armed forces or currency with the UK after independence and many unionists accept the devolution of present governing powers. So “independence-lite” and “devolution-max” overlap in attitudes towards Scottish governance alongside the more polarised absolute sovereignties characteristic of attitudes to Brexit.

Tom Nairn, the great theorist of Scottish nationalism and post-imperial UK break-up, who died last month, used to say that notwithstanding such complexities Scots deserve their moment of independent sovereignty. Only then can they decide on how to share it – perhaps by a confederalism with the former UK after the union to reassure those who have lost it. The same might apply after Irish unification.

Invoking Nairn, Stewart McDonald, the SNP MP, says Sturgeon’s proxy referendum policy is too risky and that independence needs a broader coalition strategy. Sturgeon conceded that point in calling a special party conference next month to discuss it. Writers such as Gerry Hassan say a much wider debate is required. Younger left-wing independence supporters agree and seek more radical tactics. Some want to see a Scottish referendum this year, a Parnell-type disruption in Westminster, or an Ireland 1918-type boycott of it.

Support for the SNP remains stronger than for independence. That matters for the future of UK politics. Labour cannot rely on Scotland for a majority in the next election despite Keir Starmer’s stronger showing and may need SNP support.

[ Nicola Sturgeon ran out of road but Scottish independence has not ]

The UK’s union is fragile because sovereignty is unresolved between the London centre and devolved authorities, exacerbated by Brexit and its weak economy. Independence will paradoxically attract Scots more if the border with England stays open under a Labour government that is closer to the EU.