Stephen Collins: What Micheál Martin does next could shape Irish politics until 2030

Will he stay or will he go to Europe? That is the question the political world is asking about the intentions of Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin. His decision will have a vital bearing on the future of his party and, more importantly, on the fate of the country in the decade ahead.

After his successful stint as taoiseach, Martin is Fianna Fáil’s strongest asset as we head into a critical phase in the electoral cycle that will see European and local elections take place next June, with a general election likely to follow in the autumn of 2024.

Despite all the media speculation about Sinn Féin leading the next government, the political reality is that if Fianna Fáil can win 20 per cent or more of the vote at the next election and if Fine Gael can do the same then the current Coalition has a real chance of winning another term.

However, the chances of Fianna Fáil doing well enough to make that a possibility depend on Martin leading them into the fray. His performance as taoiseach impressed people who would not normally be supporters of his party, and there is nobody else in Fianna Fáil who can rival his standing with the public.

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That should enable him not only to maximise the Fianna Fáil vote in the general election but to lead his party in the direction he deems most appropriate in the aftermath. Given his long-time hostility to Sinn Féin, many believe he would opt for a second coalition with Fine Gael and the Greens if the numbers add up. This is why the decision he makes about Europe could have an impact on the course of Irish politics for the rest of the decade.

So what are Martin’s options? He could become the next Irish commissioner, as Fianna Fáil is entitled to the post as part of the Coalition deal. So the commissioner’s job is Martin’s if he wants it.

But rumours in diplomatic circles suggest he may be in the running for an even bigger European job. Speculation about Martin as a contender for the next president of the European Council is doing the rounds. The council is the body that co-ordinates the approach of the 27 member states and is one of the three pillars of the European Union, along with the European Commission and the European Parliament. Its president is chosen by the 27 heads of government, and usually it goes to one of their number. The tradition is that the post does not go to one of the big member states such as Germany or France. The current occupant of the post is Charles Michel, former Belgian prime minister.

If he decides to stay at home, he will have to face the rigours of a bruising general election campaign but will have a real prospect of winning a second term as taoiseach

There was speculation some time ago that Leo Varadkar could be a contender, given that he will be at the table when the decision is made. He might have qualified on the grounds of ability and his leadership of a small member state, but he is ruled out because of another element in the equation – namely, the balance of power between the big European political groupings. With Ursula von der Leyen regarded as a certainty for a second term as commission president, the EPP group, of which Fine Gael is a member, is ruled out of contention for another top post. It means the council presidency will go to the Liberal/Renew group or the socialists.

Given that Martin enhanced his reputation during his 2½ years at the council and is a member of the Liberal/Renew group, there are grounds for regarding him as a contender. A factor that will count against him, though, is Irish neutrality. The EU has a direct involvement in the war being fought by Ukraine against the Russian invasion. There is also likely to be stiff competition from others currently sitting around the top table. Portuguese prime minister António Costa, a member of the socialist group who has done a very good job in office, has made no secret of his interest in the post. Another possibility is the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, who is stepping down from his job at the end of this year.

[ Martin aims to stay at helm of Fianna Fáil and return to taoiseach’s office ]

[ Micheál Martin has remade Fianna Fáil into a vehicle for its leader ]

If Martin does not emerge as the council president, he could be in the running for the position of EU high representative for foreign policy. This has become a steadily more important position in the EU hierarchy and Martin’s current role as Minister for Foreign Affairs would be the ideal stepping stone but again Irish neutrality would be an issue despite his unreserved support for Ukraine. To be in the running for that post he would first have to be nominated as Ireland’s EU commissioner. The bottom line is that he can go to the commission if he wishes.

If he decides to stay at home, he will have to face the rigours of a bruising general election campaign but will have a real prospect of winning a second term as taoiseach. For somebody with his deep love of country and commitment to his party that may be the most attractive prospect of all.