Coalitions of the centre lack what it takes to fix housing crisis

Looking at the parties in government since the foundation of the State shows that Fine Gael have been in power for about 9 per cent of the time and only once on their own, as Cumann na nGhaedheal back in 1923. Over the same period, Fianna Fáil have been in power on their own for about 41 per cent of the time.

Both parties have delivered about the same amount of social housing for every year of government, but Fianna Fáil have delivered more private housing. For nearly half of its existence, therefore, Ireland has had a coalition government of some form, and exclusively for the last 34 years.

Does this matter for policy, and particularly for housing policy? It seems so, because not only do coalition governments exhibit certain characteristics, so too do self-styled governments of the centre.

The defining feature of coalition governments is compromise. Coalition parties aspire for consensus, shelve any radical plans, side line smaller parties, and are short-term in thinking. Marks are awarded for collective performance, sudden moves are forbidden, and the middle ground is their safe space. There is no “I” in team, but there is a “me”, goes the mantra.

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In broad terms, this reversion to the mean can – and does – result in more of the same, frequently mediocre, policies which ensure nothing game-changing happens when most needed. Big issues such as housing require big responses (and strong leadership) which makes most centrist-policy solutions weak, unambitious and ultimately ineffectual. Mediocre thinkers leave their plans to others, often lobbyists. Alain Denault, an expert on political centrism, believes that mediocrity means people carry out an imitation of work to produce an illusion of an outcome.

To compound this, since the Great Economic Unpleasantness of 2008, the political centre has shifted to the right, with 22 of 27 European countries now having right-wing or centre-right governments, with more to come.

Big Rent touched down in Ireland some years ago and ministers went weak at the knees. Yet, despite the construction of thousands of tax-friendly, build-to-rent apartments and the purchase of thousands more, rents have continued to rise and home-ownership to plummet

For Irish housing, this has meant a preference for deregulation (lower standards); under-resourcing of the State (which currently needs 541 planners and administrative staff); a reliance on the private sector for delivery as the State retreats (about 70 per cent of social housing is delivered by non-State providers); the dilution of public participation and bypassing of local democracy to facilitate the private sector (see the Planning and Development Bill 2023); and low taxation for investors.

The results have been predictable: legal challenges, rising homeless numbers, backlogged systems, missed targets, the State struggling to catch up, the increased financialisation of housing, young people who can’t find new homes to buy even if they could afford them – and spin to cover it all up.

In centrist governments, the target audience is the middle but, as the political centre has moved to the right, its perception of where the middle is has also shifted. For example, planning standards were created for large-scale build-to-rent apartments (new apartment rent averages €25,000 a year in Dublin) for “a young and increasingly internationally mobile workforce”, but a typical six-figure salaried tech worker is a long way from the middle.

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In reality, Ireland’s homo-medius is 39 years of age and had an annual income of €41,823 per annum in 2022. However, the median income of first-time buyers of new homes was €93,000 in 2022 and €75,000 for second-hand houses.

In Anglosphere countries – all with similar housing issues – to-the-right-of-centre centrists have been an enthusiastic congregation for the evangelicals of neoliberalism, repeating narratives supporting financialisation and privatisation, while at the same time conveniently ignoring the likely impacts of such policy approaches. The neoliberal solution to every housing crisis is always more expensive housing.

Big Rent touched down in Ireland some years ago and ministers went weak at the knees. Yet, despite the construction of thousands of tax-friendly, build-to-rent apartments and the purchase of thousands more, rents have continued to rise and home-ownership to plummet, as it has since the early 1990s, at the beginning of a continuous run of coalitions.

Incurious, poorly informed and heavily lobbied, the Government’s response to expensive and rising rents has been more supply of expensive rentals, ignoring the 400,000 renters who want to own their own home. The real solution is reducing demand for rental accommodation through increasing the supply of housing for sale for want-to-be purchasers. Yet, in 2022, less than one in three of all new housing ended up on the market for sale.

It seems centrist politicians don’t know where the middle is. This has consequences.

On the political spectrum that is now more a horseshoe than a line, as Fine Gael moved further to the political right especially in housing, Fianna Fáil is manoeuvring into Fine Gael’s former space, with Sinn Féin now occupying the political vacuum left by Fianna Fáil. In this game of musical chairs, Sinn Féin’s move to the centre (aided and abetted by old-school Fianna Fáil housing policies) has left a space for smaller parties and Independent politicians to fill, which they will increasingly continue to do.

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This is all amplified in urban areas, where housing is the decisive election issue, and the main political parties are not waving but drowning. Since 1989, Fianna Fáil’s seats in Dublin have fallen by 47 per cent and Fine Gael’s by 66 per cent. This trend is likely to continue unless there is substantive policy change.

Would a single-party government be any different? The history of housing shows that policies which significantly changed the landscape were enacted by parties in government on their own, most noticeably in the 1930s and 1960s. Whether this was due to more courage of conviction, an ability to make policy by themselves in the days before lobbyists, or just being free from the shackles of a coalition partner is hard to tell.

Centrist politicians love quoting Yeats’s The Second Coming: “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold.” But it should be remembered that he was writing about a coming apocalypse. If the centre is to hold, then politicians – especially in coalitions – will have to make policy for the true middle and not for their misperceived notion of the centre.

Dr Lorcan Sirr is senior lecturer in housing at Technological University Dublin