Does the island of Ireland contain two badly run economies or one, or none? The question arises following Mary Lou McDonald’s appearance on Monday’s Good Morning Britain on ITV.
After calling for a united Ireland, the Sinn Féin president was asked by presenter Richard Madeley: “Why do you want Northern Ireland still so badly? Because, economically, I think it’s fair to say it’s close to being a basket case at the moment. This country pays it a huge amount in terms of subsidies to Ulster, far more than we get back.”
This question was full of horror for unionists, in language and tone. Madeley’s view of Northern Ireland as a different country leaching off his own is presumably widespread. A decade ago, ITV dropped a plan to change the title of Good Morning Britain to Good Morning UK. Perhaps it thought the audience would be as confused about the distinction as its presenter.
But the question was also full of traps for McDonald, even if Madeley appeared to have sprung them unwittingly.
READ MORE
Since 2013 Sinn Féin has insisted Northern Ireland requires almost no subsidy, as the £10 billion-plus subvention is a perfidious British accounting trick. In recent years it has simultaneously condemned the Irish Government for economic mismanagement while boasting that the Republic is booming and could easily afford what costs of unification remain.
The party restated this two weeks ago, following an academic report. Its subvention claim assumes Britain would continue paying State and unfunded public service pensions to Northern Ireland, without collecting any taxes. Although this is highly implausible, it is Sinn Féin’s position and McDonald was put on the spot over it.
Describing Northern Ireland as a basket case might also have raised republican hackles. Sinn Féin has co-governed Stormont for almost two decades. Since the start of this decade it has increasingly claimed leadership of economic policy, taking control of the Department of Finance and adding the Department for the Economy last year, when it also took the First Minister’s chair.
Sinn Féin has used these positions to develop what are supposedly flagship policies on labour market reform, an industrial strategy and fiscal devolution. It has sought credit for Northern Ireland’s unique post-Brexit trading arrangements, claiming these have grown investment and cross-Border trade.
[ John FitzGerald: Irish unification would hit South harder than 2008 crashOpens in new window ]
This seizing of the reins has been accompanied by promises of prosperity for all through Stormont, serving the goal of a united Ireland. Sinn Féin has given every impression of having resolved the conundrum, for republicans, of how to govern Northern Ireland successfully while also seeking to end its existence.
The party could claim this is beginning to work, although few of its policies have yet been implemented. Northern Ireland has been the best-performing part of the UK since Brexit by some measures and even its subvention is no longer an outlier: Scotland had a slightly larger subsidy per head in 2023.
Scottish nationalists point to this to argue for rejoining the EU through independence. Sinn Féin could do likewise.
Instead, McDonald simply echoed Madeley. “The North is consistently in economic difficulties because it is not economically viable as a territory,” she replied.
The Sinn Féin president then headed off to her main engagement in London, alongside First Minister Michelle O’Neill, to address the UK’s Foreign Press Association on a united Ireland. Both women made their case, yet again, in terms of Northern Ireland requiring almost no subvention.
Sinn Féin could say none of this is necessarily contradictory and it is delivering economic progress in Northern Ireland despite the poor hand history has dealt it. But McDonald could not bring herself to say this on ITV.
Obviously, Sinn Féin is tailoring its message to different audiences.
The message to the British public is “let us take this expensive burden off your hands”, without revealing it expects Britain to keep paying the bills. The pensions claim is to reassure the Republic unification would be painless. Even a perfectly manageable amount of pain is seemingly too much to ask.
Constant complaining in the Dáil about the Irish economy is to be expected of an opposition party. But Sinn Féin is a party of government in Northern Ireland and people there hear its contradictory spinning elsewhere. On Tuesday DUP Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly said Sinn Féin ministers “need to be open with the public – are they working to promote our economy or have they simply binned it as economically unviable?”
While this is unlikely to cause a serious row at Stormont, the depressing long-term implications are starting to sink in. Sinn Féin has not resolved the conundrum of making Northern Ireland work, nor is it giving serious economic thought to a united Ireland.
It is just marking time until a Border poll – still maybe decades away – by telling everyone whatever it thinks they want to hear.
