Cliff Taylor: The election will be a referendum on Kenny

We are in the final run in to the oddest general election of recent times. Every previous election has clarified itself, at least in part, by the choice of a taoiseach: Garret or Charlie, Bertie or Enda, Enda or Micheál, and so on. The last British general election also came down to David or Ed.

The forthcoming election is different. The decision is whether you want Enda Kenny as the next taoiseach or not. It is, so far, more like a referendum than an election. Judging by recent opinion polls, there is no other obvious option as the next taoiseach. So in terms of policy, it turns into a vote on whether you want more of the same or something different – though how a vote for “change” would be delivered via a new government is unclear.

Against this backdrop, a big job for the Opposition is to persuade the electorate that there is, in fact , an alternative government that would not be led by Fine Gael. And so Sinn Féin has, in the last few days, been floating the idea of a left-wing alliance led by it. It is important for the Opposition that some of these possibilities start to look at least plausible, because otherwise the “no alternative” story being put about by the Government parties will gain more and more traction.

The battle is getting under way. And it is clear Fine Gael – and Labour – have the “incumbent advantage”. They can use the flow of economic good news to their advantage.

As an election draws near, a separation starts to appear between the Civil Service and the government of the day, as the senior mandarins draw back from the fray. Ministers are increasingly being left to their own devices . The messages being sent out to the media are being shaped more and more by the party political machines and by the Government advisers who came from this background, as opposed to the full-time civil servants.

And they have some material to use. The news on the public finances could hardly be better. Underlying borrowing this year could be about 1.5 per cent of GDP. If the Government can get the money from the sale of some of its AIB stock in quickly enough, the cash figures may actually show a surplus for 2015.

This will be hammered home by the Fine Gael and Labour party machines. Already Fine Gael has made a move to set the agenda, arguing off the back of the exchequer figures that its plan to abolish the universal social charge (USC) is affordable, that there might be some clawback from higher earners, that it will aim some cash at the lowest earners and so on. It is a simple message: we will put money in your pocket (but not in a way that will mess up the public finances).

Political uncertainty

Labour has made its own USC pledges and will presumably have much to say about public services. But the Opposition parties have yet to clearly put themselves on the pre-election pitch. That’s why the Sinn Féin moves are interesting. They see that to gain ground in the campaign, the electorate needs to see at least a chance of a government being formed that does not have Enda Kenny as taoiseach. But all the other potential partners remain shy of commitment and quick to rule out various combinations.

Fine Gael will play this for all it’s worth, arguing that the alternative to its man is political uncertainty and chaos. But there are dangers for its campaign here, too. When people can choose between two leaders, they tend to plump for one even if they don’t particularly like either. But when it comes down to a “for or against” choice, the decision is different and to some extent unpredictable.

A year ago, a Yes or No vote on whether people wanted current policies to continue would have been potentially disastrous for the Government parties. Back then the narrative was of a country which was – finally – rebelling against austerity. About the same time, tens of thousands of people marched in Dublin in one of the biggest anti-water charges protests. It was, of course, about more than water, as people kicked out against the cuts they had faced and the fact that many were not feeling any upturn.

Continuity

The Coalition hopes that, a year on, there will be enough people buoyed by the recovery to back the continuation, more or less, of current policies. Sinn Féin’s move to propose a left alliance may gain traction, but it may also set up a campaign where “more of the same” is pitched against a sharper, anti-austerity, higher tax on the rich message.

You would think that continuity might win the day in a growing economy. But there are more than enough people still angry and bruised after the downturn – as shown by support for the Anti-Austerity People for Profit group – to ensure they will simply not vote for the Coalition no matter what.

A year ago I remember watching the water marches wind their way around Dublin. In a straight Yes or No vote back then, you wouldn’t have backed the Coalition. A lot has changed in the meantime. The question is whether the building recovery and the budget welfare and tax moves will have won enough votes to get the current Fine Gael and Labour Government back over the line.

If the answer to this question is no, how will this vote for change be delivered via a new government? Before they start telling us their policies, the Opposition needs to persuade the electorate that there is an alternative to Enda.