Crisis in Burma sparks shift in Asean stance

WorldView: The Burmese crisis has catapulted that country on to the international agenda this week. A watching world made vividly aware of the courage and heroism involved in the protests by new communications technology is also having to learn rapidly about the political, military/security, regional and economic realities behind them.

Despite the isolation of its ruling military junta and its success in closing its society, Burma is caught up in a geopolitical tussle over its natural resources between China and India. The crisis could also be the defining issue in the development of closer political relations among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) regional grouping of which it has been a member for 10 years.

This triangular set of relationships attracted attention as the UN Security Council refused to take up sanctions proposals from the European Union and the United States, recalling the veto by China and Russia in January of a similar motion, on the grounds of non-interference in internal affairs. But the council did sanction - with Chinese approval - a visit to Burma by the UN special envoy, who will report back on events there.

Chinese representatives repeated the line put forward earlier this month in Beijing by one of China'a senior diplomats, Tang Jiaxuan, to the visiting Burmese foreign minister U Nyan Win: "China wholeheartedly hopes that Burma will push forward a democracy process that is appropriate for the country. China hopes Burma will restore internal stability as soon as possible, properly handle issues and actively promote national reconciliation."

There is definite movement here away from strict non-interference. Some of the reasons why this might be so were revealed during the week. Stability is an often-repeated value for Beijing. The last thing its rulers want as they prepare for their five-yearly party congress next month and for the Olympics next year is religious-led social turbulence on their southern border which could spill over into China itself, or into Tibet. Think of Falun Gong and social protest there.

Burma has become much more economically and strategically important for China in recent years. Trade between the two states has boomed as has Chinese investment in its oil, gas and physical infrastructure. In March, Burma decided to sell natural gas from two offshore fields to China, even though Indian firms had a 30 per cent stake in them. China hopes to build oil and gas pipelines across Burma that would free it from pressure should the strategic Malacca Straits become blocked. Burma could give China naval access to the Indian Ocean.

This Chinese competition with India for Burmese resources gives both its huge neighbours a stake in the country's future. So far the tussle has proceeded without regard for political or ethical niceties and has included large amounts of military aid and sales. India's eastward thrust and China's southern one arise directly from the need for energy resources as their industrialisation proceeds apace. It has given the Burmese junta leeway to bargain.

But the increasing impoverishment of Burma's population as the military went ahead with grandiose projects such as a new capital 300km (186 miles) from Rangoon, an information technology capital and salary increases for civil servants, attracted attention from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank last year. They recommended cutting subsidies on Burma's domestic fuel and gas supplies. According to an expert analysis by the Power and Interest News Report (www.pinr.com), this option became more attractive to the junta as it came under pressure to privatise the fuel distribution system and find other ways to fund huge budget deficits which it has so far done by printing money, thus driving inflation up to 20 per cent levels.

The sudden removal of food subsidies on August 15th doubled the prices of petrol and diesel and increased that of bottled gas by 500 per cent. Bus fares doubled and many could not afford to eat and travel to work. The decision immediately triggered the protest movement that culminated in this week's dramatic events. Economic, political and religious issues are intertwined in the movement.

This was also the case in 1988, when events culminated in 3,000 people dying when troops opened fire on civilians. In September 1987, the junta announced large banknotes were no longer valid, wiping out many families' savings. That led to a year of protests. The concession of elections in 1990 backfired when Aung San Suu Kyi's national League for Democracy gained 392 of 425 parliamentary seats and was unacceptable to the military.

Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, she has been under house arrest ever since and is now in prison after making a highly symbolic public appearance.

Asean brings together Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Now in its 40th year, it has emerged as the most important grouping in the region, not least through the new relationship (Asean+3) it has built up with China, Japan and South Korea since the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

The organisation is engaged in a coming of age as it decides whether to apply sanctions, including expulsion, for human rights violations or extra-constitutional ways of changing governments. It is also to decide at its November summit in Singapore whether to abandon the full consensus method of decision-making in favour of some weighted majority voting.

On Thursday night at the UN in New York, Asean foreign ministers issued what for them is an extraordinarily strong political rebuke of Burma, a full member.

The ministers "expressed their revulsion to Burma foreign minister Nyan Win over reports that the demonstrations in Myanmar are being suppressed by violent force and that there has been a number of fatalities", said Singapore's foreign minister, George Yeo. They strongly urged Burma to exercise restraint and seek a political solution, and want the ruling junta to resume national reconciliation with all parties and work towards a peaceful transition to democracy.

This crisis could therefore see an end to the twin norms of non-interference and consensus which have been the hallmarks of the Asian way for so many years.